Khamenei’s Vision of Iran’s ‘Resistance Economy’ Hasn’t Been Realized
Iran
London - Asharq Al-Awsat
Iran may not be gearing up for a direct confrontation with the West, according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). The institute released a report saying new President Ebrahim Raisi has inherited an economy on life support, the Covid-19 pandemic and Western sanctions have cost Iran about 1.5 million jobs, and oil and gas export revenues have plummeted. Iran’s annual inflation has reached almost 50 percent, with the cost of basic foods soaring by nearly 60 percent. For years, Iranian moderates, such as former President Hassan Rouhani, tried and failed to reach an understanding with the West. “Clearly, [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei’s 2011 vision of a self-reliant Iranian ‘resistance economy’ hasn’t been realized. Nor will it be.” Furthermore, now that Raisi is president, Iran’s hardliners can no longer blame pro-Western moderates for the country’s economic woes. The report explained the government must stem the economy’s decline by persuading the international community to ease sanctions, which will require it to reach some sort of understanding with the US over its nuclear program. “Russia and China are Iran’s more natural allies.” However, neither Moscow nor Beijing will give Tehran the resources it needs to sustain its costly proxy wars or reverse its economic decline. China, in particular, views Iran as a pawn in its broader chess match with the US, one that it would willingly sacrifice for an agreement on vital trade issues. “An Iranian empire in the Middle East is simply not a strategic priority for China,” according to the report. Iranian fundamentalists can’t be too happy with their Chinese ally’s brutal crackdown on its Muslim Uyghur population. The bilateral relationship thus does not represent a way out of Iran’s current predicament. It noted that a new nuclear agreement is an existential imperative for Iran. And, as much as he dislikes the idea of striking a deal with the US, Khamenei understands this. “Remaining on the threshold of nuclear breakout—a position it attained following America’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018—without actually crossing it may be Iran’s current bargaining position. This is what Raisi might have meant when, prior to his election, he upheld Iran’s need to return to the JCPOA in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.” The real bone of contention lies not in whether the parties are willing to go back to the JCPOA, but the terms on which Iran would accept the US demand for a new, long-term deal once the JCPOA expires. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has unrealistically called for a “longer and stronger” accord, one that stops Tehran from amassing nuclear material for generations halts its missile tests, and ends its support of terrorist groups. The institute stated that Washington should do all it can to encourage Iran’s “heroic flexibility.” After the US’ disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the last thing that Washington needs is even more chaos in the Middle East. The victory of the Taliban should strengthen Iran’s commitment to avoid stoking conflict with the West. “Now might be as good an opportunity as the US is going to get to reach a lasting nuclear agreement with Iran.”
from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3143946/khamenei%E2%80%99s-vision-iran%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98resistance-economy%E2%80%99-hasn%E2%80%99t-been-realized
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