Google to Pay $90 Mln to Settle Legal Fight with App Developers
Technology
Asharq Al-Awsat
A 3D printed Google logo is seen in this illustration taken April 12, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Alphabet Inc's Google has agreed to pay $90 million to settle a legal fight with app developers over the money they earned creating apps for Android smartphones and for enticing users to make in-app purchases, according to a court filing. The app developers, in a lawsuit filed in federal court in San Francisco, had accused Google of using agreements with smartphone makers, technical barriers and revenue sharing agreements to effectively close the app ecosystem and shunt most payments through its Google Play billing system with a default service fee of 30%. As part of the proposed settlement, Google said in a blog post it would put $90 million in a fund to support app developers who made $2 million or less in annual revenue from 2016-2021. "A vast majority of US developers who earned revenue through Google Play will be eligible to receive money from this fund, if they choose," Google said in the blog post. Google said it would also charge developers a 15% commission on their first million in revenue from the Google Play Store each year. It started doing this in 2021, Reuters reported. The court must approve the proposed settlement. There were likely 48,000 app developers eligible to apply for the $90 million fund, and the minimum payout is $250, according to Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP, who represented the plaintiffs. Apple Inc agreed last year to loosen App Store restrictions on small developers, striking a deal in a class action. It also agreed to pay $100 million. In Washington, Congress is considering legislation that would require Google and Apple to allow sideloading, or the practice of downloading apps without using an app store. Google says it already allows sideloading. It would also bar them from requiring that app providers use Google and Apple's payment systems.
from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3734421/google-pay-90-mln-settle-legal-fight-app-developers
India Bans Many Single-use Plastics to Tackle Waste
Varieties
Asharq Al-Awsat
A woman picks up plastic cups along the riverbank of Pasig river, in Manila, Philippines, June 10, 2021. REUTERS/Lisa Marie David
India imposed a ban on many single-use plastics on Friday in a bid to tackle waste choking rivers and poisoning wildlife, but experts say it faces severe headwinds from unprepared manufacturers and consumers unwilling to pay more. The country generates around four million tons of plastic waste per year, about a third of which is not recycled and ends up in waterways and landfills that regularly catch fire and exacerbate air pollution, AFP reported. Stray cows munching on plastic are a common sight in Indian cities and a recent study found traces in the dung of elephants in the northern forests of Uttarakhand state. Estimates vary but around half comes from items used once, and the new ban covers the production, import and sale of ubiquitous objects like straws and cups made of plastic as well as wrapping on cigarette packets. Exempt for now are products such as plastic bags below a certain thickness and so-called multi-layered packaging. Authorities have promised to crack down hard after the ban -- first announced in 2018 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi -- came into effect. Inspectors are set to fan out from Friday checking that no suppliers or distributors are flouting the rules at risk of a maximum fine of 100,000 rupees ($1,265) or five-year jail sentence. - Industry lobbying - Around half of India's regions have already sought to impose their own regulations but as the state of rivers and landfill sites testifies, success has been mixed. Firms in the plastics industry, which employs millions of people, say that alternatives are expensive and they have been lobbying the government for a delay to the ban. Pintu, who earns his living hacking the top of coconuts with a machete and serving them to customers with a plastic straw, doesn't know what he will do. Switching to "expensive paper straws will be tough. I will likely pass the cost to the customers," he told AFP in New Delhi. "I've heard it'll help the environment but I don't see how it'll change anything for us," he added. GlobalData analysts said small packs with plastic straws make up 35 percent of soft drinks volumes, meaning manufacturers will be "badly hit". "(The) price-sensitive masses are unable to foot the bill for eco-friendly alternatives," Bobby Verghese from GlobalData added. - 'Resistance' - Jigish N. Doshi, president of industry group Plastindia Foundation, expects "temporary" job losses but said the bigger issue was firms "which had invested huge capital for machines that may not be useful" after the ban. "It's not easy to make different products from machines and the government could help by offering some subsidies and helping develop and purchase alternative products," Doshi told AFP. Satish Sinha from environmental group Toxics Link told AFP that "there will be initial resistance" as finding replacements may be hard but it was a "very welcome step". "There will be difficulties and we may pay the price but if you're serious about the environment, this is an important issue that needs a concerted push," he said. One young company trying to be part of the change is Ecoware, which makes disposable bio-degradable products at its factory outside Delhi. Chief executive Rhea Mazumdar Singhal told AFP that the appalling state of landfills and widespread plastic consumption inspired her venture. "We've seen plenty of bans before, but as citizens the power lies with us," Singhal said.
from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3734411/india-bans-many-single-use-plastics-tackle-waste
Asharq Al-Awsat
A woman walks past an Apple logo in front of an Apple store in Saint-Herblain near Nantes, France, September 16, 2021. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/Files
Apple Inc has hiked by nearly a fifth the cost of its flagship iPhone phone in Japan, which is battling a weakening yen currency and rising inflation. The Cupertino, California-based manufacturer's entry level iPhone 13 now costs 117,800 yen ($870), Apple's website showed, compared to 99,800 yen previously. With the dollar up 18% against the yen year-to-date, the higher cost of the iPhone, which dominates Japan's smartphone market, comes as consumers' wallets are being squeezed by price hikes for daily necessities. Such widespread hikes are a change for most Japanese following years of stable prices for many products. Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3734391/apple-hikes-japan-price-iphone-nearly-5th
Hong Kong's Blurring Border with China a Sign of Things to Come
World
Asharq Al-Awsat
Hong Kong's territory is fast being subsumed into Beijing's blueprint for southern China ISAAC LAWRENCE AFP
From the hill in northernmost Hong Kong where Jasper Law stood, the border with China was obvious -- a narrow river dividing farmlands and fishponds from the gleaming skyscrapers of megacity Shenzhen. Friday is the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's transition from British to Chinese rule, AFP said. While the view from the hilltops of Lok Ma Chau suggests Hong Kong remains clearly distinct from mainland China, the territory is fast being subsumed into Beijing's blueprint for southern China. And as the border is chipped away, the lack of public consultation has done little to ease the lingering discomfort some Hong Kongers feel about living on the mainland's doorstep. "In the 25 years since the handover, the border has become more and more blurry," said Law, a pro-democracy politician from the border area. The softening boundary has preoccupied many Hong Kongers. And it was one of the catalysts for the huge democracy protests in the finance hub three years ago, a movement initially triggered by an attempt to allow extraditions to China's mainland. Beijing's subsequent crackdown has only sped up Hong Kong's absorption. - Security agents roam free - The integration of Hong Kong's population and economy with mainland China has been under way for decades. Between 1997 and 2021, more than 1.1 million people migrated from China via a limited-quota "one-way permit" scheme, almost a seventh of Hong Kong's current population. Mandarin was increasingly pushed in schools, sparking resentment among those who felt the city's distinct Cantonese culture was being eroded. Hong Kong's borders were also tweaked, most notably in the 2010s with an expansion of China's high-speed rail into the city. Part of the terminus in Hong Kong came under Chinese jurisdiction, meaning the mainland's Communist Party-controlled legal system applied there. Beijing's imposition of a sweeping national security law to curb dissent following the 2019 protests has further eroded the legal firewall between Hong Kong and the mainland. Under the law, which was imposed by Beijing directly rather than passed through the legislature, the mainland's security agents can now operate freely in Hong Kong, immune from the city's laws. Beijing says it can now also try the most serious national security offences in mainland China. And the Covid-19 pandemic has further whittled away at the boundaries. While the border has been mostly closed under China's strict zero-Covid rules, mainland medics were granted exemptions to work in Hong Kong's hospitals. Construction teams were also sent across the border to build emergency health facilities, even constructing a new bridge with Shenzhen to ease their travel. - 'Power imbalance' - Hong Kong's government now plans to transform the border area with a two-decade plan that will place integration with Shenzhen at the heart of economic development in the city's northernmost areas, shifting focus away from Hong Kong's glitzy Victoria Harbor. Dubbed the "Northern Metropolis", the HK$100 billion ($12.7 billion) project envisages building a new megacity next to Shenzhen -- a new node in Beijing's "Greater Bay Area" ambitions to create a Chinese Silicon Valley connecting Hong Kong and multiple cities in neighboring Guangdong province. The government says the new metropolis will create 650,000 new jobs as well as much-needed new homes in one of the world's least affordable cities. Veteran urban planner Kenneth To said he thought the government's vision was far from coherent, and bemoaned the small circle of vested interests that dominated discussion on development in Hong Kong. "The power imbalance is worrying," he told AFP. But Jack Lam, a mobile phone accessories seller who lives in a district near the border, was more upbeat. "When the population increases, you can expect more development to come, there will be more people starting businesses for sure," the 35-year-old said.
from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3734371/hong-kongs-blurring-border-china-sign-things-come
Tesla May Be Driving Itself Out of the Running as EV Leader
Opinion
Gary Smith
Gary Smith -
Early bicycles came in a variety of sizes, shapes and styles, and they had colorful nicknames. The “dandy horse” had no pedals and was propelled by the rider’s feet pushing the ground — essentially wheel-assisted walking. The “penny farthing” had pedals, but the rider sat above a huge front wheel that dwarfed the tiny back wheel — similar to the size difference between the British penny and farthing coins. “Boneshaker” bicycles had iron and wood wheels that were ill-suited for rough terrain. What they all had in common was that they were uncomfortable, unsafe and expensive. In the late 1800s, a series of technological innovations led to “safety bicycles” that had two identical wheels, a chain drive, a diamond frame and inflatable tires. The British public embraced the safety, comfort and cost of these improved bicycles. Middle-class Brits who could not afford a horse or horse and carriage were now able to travel conveniently through cities and far into the countryside — even over bad roads. Bicycles were also environmentally friendly, offering an inexpensive solution to what became known as “the great horse manure crisis of 1894,” a reference to the fact that the horses transporting people and goods were overwhelming cities with foul-smelling, disease-spreading droppings. The number of British bicycle makers quintupled, to 833 from around 163. Many were financed by stock sales, with the number of publicly traded British companies producing cycles, tubes or tires increasing from fewer than 10 in 1895 to 127 in 1897. At its peak, in 1896, British companies produced 750,000 bicycles a year, many of which were exported to the US, France and other European countries that were similarly enamored of safety bicycles and clogged with horse manure. As with many speculative stock bubbles, this genuine technological innovation led to a growth in companies profiting from this innovation and rising stock prices that attracted speculators who expected prices to continue rising — a self-fulfilling prophecy, for a while. Bicycle stock prices tripled during two months in 1896 while the overall stock market languished. Emotions trampled reason. During the tulip bulb bubble, the supply of bulbs increased because tulip bulbs multiply naturally. During the bicycle bubble, the sprouting of new companies increased the supply of bicycles, particularly mass-produced American bicycles that cost 50% less than handmade British cycles. Enthusiasts shrugged off supply worries and gushed about a future in which bicycles would be the dominant form of transportation. Bicycles were revolutionary, but bicycle stock prices had become uncoupled from the profits of bicycle makers. Fools pointed to the revolution wrought by bicycles and the superior quality of British bicycles, but the supply of greater fools soon dried up. After peaking in 1897, the stock prices of bicycle makers fell 73 percent over the next few years. The bicycle bubble was different from the tulip bubble and South Sea bubble in that there was not a sudden pop but a gradual deflation, not unlike air slowly leaking out of a bicycle tire. Fast-forward to today’s electric-vehicle revolution and head cheerleader Elon Musk, who boasted in 2016 that “all Tesla vehicles exiting the factory have the hardware necessary for Level 5 autonomy. Every car we make, on the order of 2,000 cars a week, are shipping now with Level 5, meaning hardware capable of full self-driving, or driverless, capability.” Viewers gushed at a promotional video. “What a day to be alive,” one said. Alas, it can be a long road from proof of concept to viable product. On the six-level spectrum of driving automation, Teslas are still stuck at Level 2, with the release notes for its “Full Self-Driving Beta” software warning that it may “do the wrong thing at the worst time, so you must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention to the road.” Wise words, since several glitches have been reported, including Teslas sometimes ignoring speed bumps and stop signs. Tesla Inc.’s market capitalization topped $1 trillion in October 2021, as much as the 10 next most valuable automakers combined. Tesla’s market cap has slipped to $800 billion in the current stock market slump, yet it is still valued at more than 100 times earnings, and prominent pundits think that its stock is cheap. Investor Gary Black predicted that Tesla’s current $700 stock price will pass $3,000 by 2030; even more audaciously, Ark analyst Tasha Keeney set a 2026 date. The 2030 forecast assumes that 60% of the cars sold worldwide in 2030 will be EVs and that 20% of these cars will be Teslas — giving Tesla 10 million car sales in 2030, compared to slightly less than 1 million in 2021. The 2026 forecast assumes that Tesla will sell between 5 million and 10 million cars that year, but nonetheless gives the same $3,000 price target. Teslas are fine cars (my family owns two), but there is a big difference between a good car and a great stock. These ebullient predictions have uncanny parallels to the unbridled enthusiasm for bicycles 125 years ago. Economically relevant EVs are a terrific technological innovation — as evidenced by the vigorous efforts of new and established automakers to build EVs. Now, as then, enthusiasts don’t seem to have considered the implications of the looming explosion in supply. High-end cars like BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi will compete directly with Tesla, while other companies like BYD Co. Ltd., General Motors Co., Hyundai Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. will offer attractive cars at half the price. Tesla currently has 14% of the worldwide EV market (followed by Volkswagen AG at 12% and SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd. at 11%). The assumption that Tesla’s worldwide market share will increase to 20% over the next 10 years is beyond optimistic, verging on delirious. Tesla got a big head start in battery design and driver-assistance systems, but solid-state EVs are about to shake up the battery competition. Fully self-driving cars are not only still elusive but also deeply distrusted by consumers. Tesla is increasingly just one among many, in the same way that an early bicycle maker soon became just one among many. The British bicycle bubble ended with a whimper. The same is likely to be true of the Tesla bubble. Bloomberg
from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3734316/gary-smith/tesla-may-be-driving-itself-out-running-ev-leader
Amir Taheri
Amir Taheri - Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987
While Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are marketing their authoritarian rules as alternatives to a “moribund” Western democratic system, the Khomeinist mullahs in Tehran are also throwing their hat, sorry turban, into the ring as contenders for leading a new World Order. An early version of the mullahs’ bid came almost 30 years ago when Hojat al-Islam Muhammad Khatami suggested that, by separating religion from politics, the Renaissance and Enlightenment in Europe had created a world order that fomented wars, slavery and colonialism. The way to salvation was to restore religious control on politics by granting theologians a role in the leadership. The new version is offered by Ayatollah Ahmad Alam al-Hoda, a senior cleric in Mash’had and one of the four or five turbaned heads considered as possible successors to the present “Supreme Guide” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The father-in-law of the current Islamic President Ayatollah Ibrahim Raisi, Alam al-Hoda also has close relations with the military-security apparatus often labelled as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Trying to cast himself as the ideologue of the regime Alam al-Hoda spelled out his world vision in a lengthy sermon in the “holy city”. According to him the era of modernism that began with the Westphalian treaties, the American independence, the French Revolution and the Industrial Revolution is over as we enter the post-modern world. “The world that was enslaved by modernity is crumbling,” he said. “A post-modern world is on the horizon; one that only Islamic Iran can lead.” Alam al-Hoda claims that the United States is falling apart as some states, notably Texas, seek secession and with Israelis fleeing their “promised land” in ever growing numbers. But why should Iran emerge as the new world leader? Alam al-Hoda’s answer is stark: Today the Islamic Republic in Iran is the only standard-bearer of true Muhammadan Islam. Out of the 57 countries with Muslim majority populations, Iran is “the only country which has an Islamic government in the true meaning of the term”. Other nations need not convert to Islam to benefit from the “Islamic model”. In fact some non- Muslim nations, notably Venezuela, have already done so. Mohsen Shaterzadeh, former ambassador of the Islamic Republic to Venezuela, says that Hugo Chavez’s Bolivarian Revolution was “inspired by the teachings of Imam Khomeini”. Chavez who made several trips to Iran learned how to rule a nation in a just way. “Chavez finally came to believe in the Hidden Imam and developed a deep devotion to Supreme Guide Imam Khamenei,” Shaterzadeh says. Iran’s “Islamic model “has also won “mass followings” in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen where the movement for establishing a “truly Muhammadan system” continues to grow. This “we’re-the-most-beautiful” illusion of the mullahs may be dismissed as an acute form of limerence. The problem is that it prevents Iran from acquiring a realistic portrayal of itself that is not reflected in the falsifying mirror of fanatical fantasy. A true picture of Iran under the Islamic Republic may attract some sympathy for the sufferings of a nation held hostage in a wayward ship in a stormy sea. If you thought that was an outburst of poetic conceit listen to what another ayatollah, Ahmad Jannati, said only last week. “People say that because of inflation, they cannot afford more than one meal a day,” he said. “What is wrong with that? One meal is a blessing as there are people who cannot have even that. In Islam the rule is to bear all hardship to protect those who protect the faith it from its enemies.” In other words, Alam al-Hoda’s “postmodern Islamic model” is “government by starvation.” Starvation isn’t the only “blessing” that the Islamic Republic offers. The Islamic Republic accounts for 50 percent of all executions in the world although Iran counts for only 1.1 percent of the world population. More than 40 percent of all political prisoners and prisoners of conscience are in the Islamic Republic. Each year an average of 150,000 highly educated Iranians, among them 3,500 doctors of medicine, leave the country to join the estimated 8 million, almost 10 percent of the population, already in exile. According to Transparency International, the Islamic Republic is also in the world top league for corruption. According to Tehran’s official reports between 2016 and 2020 embezzlement and bribery rose by 300 percent. Only last month, a $400 million embezzlement case was reported among 85 other cases of “big corruption” being investigation. Official reports show that some 80 un-named but presumably powerful figures owe untold sums to state-owned banks on the basis of non-existent collaterals. Flight of capital is estimated to be between $22 and $30 billion a year. With the national currency becoming virtually worthless and the Tehran Stock Exchange regraded as a den of thieves, even small savers try to take whatever money they have out as quickly as possible. Again according to official estimates more than 1.5 million Iranians have purchased property in Turkey while a further 1.2 million have invested in real estate in Georgia, Armenia and Serbia. At the same time, again according to official estimates, a quarter of Iranians live in sub-standard housing, including 13 million trapped in shanty towns. A few weeks ago the collapse of a tall building in southwest Iran claimed at least 80 lives. The authorities admit that the permits needed to build the tower were purchased through bribery. Worse still, the Mayor of Tehran warns that there are almost 500 shabbily built towers in the capital that cannot be razed presumably because they belong to powerful regime figures. Iran’s position on the global life expectancy chart has fallen to 49th place compared to 38th in 1977. Iran is also facing a downward demographic curve with a significant number of young people unable to get married and raise families. In 2021, President Hassan Rouhani’s government estimated that 25 percent of Iranians lived below poverty line while another 30 percent had “a good life.” The remaining people were JAMS or “just-about-managing” on the edge of poverty. Add to all that the challenges that average Iranians face in social, cultural and political domains and Alam al-Hoda’s “Islamic model” is unlikely to find a big market across the globe. Those who supposedly love that model in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen are simply paid to sing its praise. According to former Islamic Foreign Minister Muhammad-Javad Zarif, Tehran spent around $35 billion a year to feed its supporters in Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa, the four Arab capitals that Iran controls according to Ayatollah Ali Yunesi. Alam al-Hoda and his ilk are caught in the Walter Mitty syndrome after a Danny Kaye film in which a poor chum imagines himself in a series of heroic roles.
from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3734306/amir-taheri/ayatollah%E2%80%99s-model-world
Japanese virologist Hitoshi Oshitani has an impressive record fighting pandemics. As one of the leading experts advising the government during Covid, he helped formulate a strategy that has kept deaths in the country with the world’s oldest population lower than any other developed nation, without resorting to lockdowns. Now, as the world clamors for Japan to reopen its borders, he’s urging caution. Perhaps it’s time to listen. “I don’t like the notion of ‘back to normal,’” Oshitani, a professor of virology at the Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, said in an interview in his Tokyo office. “That means going back to the pre-pandemic society. That pre-pandemic society is very, very fragile — for many risks, not just infectious disease.” As one of the first major countries to try living with the virus, Japan offers lessons not just to Covid-zero China but to the rest of the world, as cases again rise from Singapore to the UK. Oshitani’s approach has helped keep Covid deaths in Japan lower than in Taiwan or New Zealand, where officials tried to eliminate the spread entirely. Oshitani acknowledges tourism needs to resume in some form, but warns that the country isn’t out of the woods. He also cautions that the world will see more pandemics in the coming decades. That means it’s imperative societies rethink not just how tourism might look, but how all aspects of life should change in the future — before it’s too late. The following transcript has been edited for length and clarity. Gearoid Reidy: What is the status of Japan’s battle against the coronavirus? Hitoshi Oshitani: We set our objective for a Covid-19 response on February 24, 2020. Many countries at that time were aiming at containment, but we knew that was extremely difficult. Living with Covid has been the main approach from the beginning. At the same time, we said that we needed to suppress transmission so that deaths or severe cases could be minimized. We also knew that we needed to maintain social and economic activities. Although we did not implement a lockdown, people were very cautious from the beginning — every time we had a surge of cases, they changed their behavior. Most measures are on a voluntary basis. The Three C’s concept helped people understand what they should avoid. Then omicron came, and things got a bit more complicated. Since the denominator became bigger than previous waves, we unfortunately had many deaths, particularly among the elderly. To suppress the transmission, we would need very aggressive measures, like what they are still doing in Shanghai. Except for China, most countries and areas that had very low mortality impact in 2020 and 2021 had a big impact in 2022 — New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Hong Kong. Taiwan right now is having a significant outbreak. It’s like the game Othello 2 — the countries or areas with a better outcome can easily turn to the worst outcome. So Japanese people are still cautious, and I’m still considering the worst case scenario as a possible option in Japan. The pandemic is not yet over. We should expect some surge of cases in Japan in the coming weeks, and our advantage can be a disadvantage in the next stage. GR: So countries that initially contained the virus are not using the same sort of mitigation strategies? HO: In the past two and a half years, we’ve had many, many problems. It’s not all a success story. Initially, we had many outbreaks in hospitals and nursing homes, and many elderly people died. But in the second wave, hospitals and nursing homes were much better prepared. They learned a lot of lessons and improved their systems. But New Zealand, Taiwan and other places probably didn’t have a chance to build better systems — then suddenly they had a huge number of cases due to omicron. It was the same in South Korea. Our infection rate is still smaller than in the US, or many European countries or even South Korea. Although our vaccination rate is higher than some countries, still there are people who don’t have immunity. Something like South Korea can happen here anytime. We are in a much better position than one or two years ago, because of vaccination, immunity by natural infection, better treatment and better systems in hospitals and nursing homes. But people are still cautious, most are still wearing masks. GR: What would you say to those who want Japan to return fully to normal life and treat Covid like influenza? HO: The situation now is completely different from 2020 and 2021. We are changing — but still there are many uncertainties. Many people compare seasonal influenza and Covid-19, which is kind of nonsense. I’ve also been working on influenza for many years. Seasonal influenza is different; it's predictable. Usually you only have an outbreak in certain times of the year, from autumn to spring. While there is some difference in terms of mortality impact, we always see such impact within [a certain] range. But Covid-19 is different — we cannot predict what is going to happen. We do know that there is the high possibility of a surge of cases [in Japan] in July and August. But that we do not know what mortality impact we are going to have. We still do not know what’s going to happen in winter this year. The virus is still changing. A more problematic variant may emerge. It was a dramatic change from alpha to delta; then delta to omicron is a very significant change. For influenza, such a dramatic change only occurs when pandemic influenza emerges. But for Covid-19, every six months or so pandemic influenza-like incidents are occurring. GR: The business community is calling for Japan to open its borders and go back to normal. What’s your position on tourism and border controls? HO: Since June 1, the number of incoming passengers increased and there is no testing for many countries. New strains or infected people from [countries] with a higher incidence rate can come to Japan. We need to think about this carefully. In 2019, we had 30 million people, mainly foreign tourists, coming to Japan. In 2020, the government was hoping we would have over 40 million foreign tourists because of the Olympics — of course, it turned out to be almost zero. I don’t like the notion of “back to normal.” Back to normal means we are going back to the pre-pandemic society. The pre-pandemic society is very, very, fragile for many risks, not just infectious disease. When they are talking about increasing foreign tourists, I don’t think they consider the risks seriously. GR: Japanese people can also go abroad and get infected. HO: That direction is probably a higher risk. In the early days of the pandemic, we had many [Covid] cases among people who went to Egypt; Japanese tourists, mostly middle-aged. Many were infected and came back to Japan. Even if we open the border — and we have to open the border, I understand that is definitely necessary — at the same time we should have some system to minimize the risk. What is the best way? I don’t think the border control measures of Japan, or many countries, are based on proper risk assessment. I also don’t think this is the last pandemic in the next one or two decades. Pandemics will continue to occur. We were living in a completely different world in 2020 compared to 2003, when the SARS outbreak occurred. SARS spread to many countries just by one infected person, who traveled from Guangdong province to Hong Kong by bus, and stayed in one hotel. In 2003, there was not as much traffic between Hong Kong and Guangdong. There weren’t many international connections. But 2020 was completely different — Wuhan was the industrial hub of China. By the time we realized [what was happening], the virus had already spread to Europe, Middle East, and the US. So the question is whether we should go back to this risky world or not? GR: So you’re saying no one’s thinking about the possibility of the next pandemic — something that could be worse than Covid? HO: That’s possible. Something like Ebola can be an airborne pathogen. Anything can happen. Right now, monkeypox is transmitted among a certain population, but the virus may change. So we have to be prepared and we have to think again what we should do in the next 20, 30 years. Is it a good idea just to go back to normal, to the pre-pandemic society? GR: Is there enough discussion happening about that within the WHO or other international bodies? HO: The problem is they are making the same mistakes again and again. They just try to learn lessons from the immediate past outbreak. In 2003, SARS was successfully contained. The system changed, influenza pandemic preparedness was improved — but then the 2009 [swine flu] pandemic was not that severe, And most people forgot, because they were just looking at the immediate past outbreak. Then in 2014, there was a significant Ebola outbreak in west Africa. But what they did [in response] was just to build the capacity in rural Africa so that the early detection and early response can contain the outbreak — which was completely different for Covid-19. For Covid-19, the initial outbreaks occurred in New York, northern Italy and so on. By the time we realized, it had already spread, mainly in major metropolitan cities. It was the opposite of the 2014 Ebola outbreak. GR: It’s like they say, generals always fight the last war. HO: Exactly. What they are trying to do in the WHO and the international community is just trying to learn the lesson from Covid-19, which may not be applicable for the next pandemic. GR: What should we be doing instead? HO: We have to build more resilient society. Of course, we need to have more tourists, more exchange. Before the pandemic, I often traveled on the Tohoku bullet train, which was packed with people, most of them businessmen. Now there are few — Zoom or other internet meetings can replace this. You don’t have to live in these inhuman cities like Tokyo. People can live in the rural areas; if you have a good internet connection, you can have a much better life with your kids. We have to think, is globalization really the right way to go? Bloomberg
from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3734301/gearoid-reidy/there-no-%E2%80%98back-normal%E2%80%99-after-covid
