Sudan’s Neighbors Brace for Political, Security Impact of Conflict

Features

April 25th, 7:40am

Cairo - Osama al-Saeed

A handout photo made available by the Indonesian Embassy KBRI Khartoum shows a battle-damaged street in Khartoum, Sudan, 23 April 2023 (issued 24 April 2023). (EPA)

With the Sudanese conflict now in its second week, regional anxiety is mounting among its seven neighboring countries over the potential fallout of the crisis. There are fears that the conflict could escalate over time and across borders, leading to wide scale displacement of people towards border regions. This comes at a time when most of Sudan's neighbors are already grappling with various crises and are ill-prepared to handle an influx of refugees. Five out of the seven neighboring countries - Ethiopia, Chad, Central African Republic, Libya, and South Sudan - have experienced political upheaval or conflict in recent years, resulting in thousands of refugees and displaced persons. They are also facing pressing economic and living crises. Moreover, the neighbors are wary of a potential mass displacement of refugees into their territories. Official statistics indicate that over five million Sudanese live in Egypt, including roughly 60,000 refugees and asylum seekers. The Sudanese crisis could have security implications for Libya, which is dealing with deep internal divisions. Sudanese mercenaries and militias played an active role in Libya’s internal conflict after 2011. Additionally, Sudan serves as a starting and crossing point for migrants attempting to reach Europe through Libya. For its part, Chad closed its borders with Sudan “until further notice” since the fighting erupted on April 15. This, however, did not prevent the influx of about 20,000 refugees to the border, according to the United Nations. The Chadian government also said it had disarmed a battalion of 320 soldiers belonging to the Sudanese paramilitary forces that had entered its territory on Monday. Chad is among the largest African nations hosting refugees. Out of a million displaced persons it hosts, there are 580,000 refugees who have fled conflicts in Sudan, the Central African Republic and Cameroon. Currently, 406,000 internally displaced persons are currently staying around Lake Chad. The situation has put immense strain on Chad’s already limited resources. As for South Sudan, its security concerns are accompanied by economic ones as well. The country, which separated from Sudan in 2011 after decades of civil war, fears disruption to its oil production of 170,000 barrels per day via a pipeline that passes through its northern neighbor’s territories. Sudan hosts 800,000 refugees from South Sudan, and any collective return of these refugees may increase pressure on the fragile infrastructure providing basic aid to over two million internally displaced people in South Sudan.

from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/4293151/sudan%E2%80%99s-neighbors-brace-political-security-impact-conflict