Monday, 28 February 2022

The Competing Narratives in Ukraine — Which Will Win?

The Competing Narratives in Ukraine — Which Will Win?

Opinion

John Authers
John Authers -

As of the end of last week, markets were in an emphatic “risk-on” phase. After the initial shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the S&P 500 had regained a stunning 6.6% in two days’ trading. I argued that the market was working on the assumption that Vladimir Putin would get what he wanted, and that the world could live with this. I also added the following: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? Following this logic, these are the risks to worry about: -Europe comes round to sanctions that really do hurt; -Russia’s armed forces get bogged down and this turns into a long drawn-out conflict; -Putin overplays his hand and invades a neighboring NATO member; -Internal opposition brings down Putin and Russia lapses into chaos. The first two definitely appear to be happening. The third isn’t, for which we can be thankful, but Putin does at present seem to have overplayed his hand — and his invocation of the nuclear threat suggests a risk of his doing so even more. While it would still be wishful thinking to say that the fourth is going to happen, there is far more internal opposition than many had thought possible. So by the criteria I established last week, the gloomy but market-friendly narrative that held sway then now looks seriously flawed. This matters a lot. Politics is very much the battle of narratives. A few days ago, a story built around NATO overreach in encircling Russia, a weak, non-democratic “State Department client state” Ukraine, and a need to understand the priorities of the strategic genius Putin appeared to have sway — arguably even in the US, where it had a few prominent adherents in the media. Putin would end up getting what he wanted with very little damage along the way; there was nothing anyone could do about it. Stability would return thereafter, and it was all the West’s fault. For an explanation of how that narrative was nurtured and took hold, read this post from Ben Hunt’s Epsilon Theory, which now seems prescient. This tale stretched to include other baleful notions. Europe is divided, Germany depends on Russian energy, the growing ranks of the world’s autocrats will support Putin, the US is intractably divided with a weak president and a substantial body of support for Putin and what he represents. All of this has some element of truth, of course. The point is how narratives feed on themselves so that all points that don’t fit with them are ignored. They can become self-fulfilling prophecies. Markets also move on narratives. With the strength of the received wisdom at the time that the invasion started, and the headlines of the first few hours, it was easy for the narrative that fueled the rebound to take hold. As a swiftly victorious Putin who then went back to minding his own business would imply greater global stability, that imagined scenario swiftly became market-positive. This whole story is now in shreds. The strength and success of the Ukrainian resistance to date, the brutality of the Russian assault, and the support for Ukraine in the rest of the world and even among Russians has seen to that. Now, two narratives are competing for primacy. One is that this proves to be “The Great Turning Point.” On this analysis, the European Union now gets its act together, the world’s other autocrats decide to toe the line, the mad pro-Russian strain within American conservatism is decisively defeated, giving the US a credible center-right party once more while bringing the president a new lease of life. And maybe, just maybe, this is the moment when Russia turns on Putin. Liberalism at last wins the upper hand on authoritarian populism. Here are some of the talking points in favor: -Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, another authoritarian friendly with Putin and a member of NATO, appears to be ready to block Russian forces from passing through Turkish waters in the Dardanelles; -China seems to be distancing itself from Putin; -Putin apologists in the US are desperately trying to change their story; -The EU is agreeing to much tougher financial sanctions, and acting with startling unity. The other narrative needs just one word: “Chaos.” -Putin cannot turn back now. Like many invaders before, he will continue in the attempt to avoid humiliation. Russian military power is such that it cannot be denied (if, that is, Putin sees some point in taking a country he regards as Russian by destroying it.) Russian behavior in Syria provides an idea of what could happen; -The western financial upheaval, just to enforce Russia’s new pariah status, will be immense and painful; news that BP Plc will take a $25 billion hit to drop its stake in the huge Russian oil producer Rosneft, in a painful strategic blow, shows the scale of what’s ahead; -Sanctions are creating what looks like an incipient bank run in Russia, as people try to get access to foreign currency when there’s still a chance, while the effects on bonds and the ruble could be profound; -Transport bans across Europe threaten to reintroduce the kind of problems created by the pandemic; -Putin’s rationality looks very questionable at this point, and he’s been hinting at the use of nuclear weapons. Coverage, as far as I can gauge at present, is veering between these two narratives, with a whiff of premature triumphalism mixing with deepening alarm. In the long run, it matters hugely which one wins out; in the short run, the fact that Putin can’t just take Ukraine leaving the West powerless to do anything about it means that the situation is much riskier than it appeared last week. Many historical analogies are doing the rounds. I think the best might be with “Red Monday,” Aug. 19, 1991, when Mikhail Gorbachev was detained in his dacha and a group of Soviet hardliners declared a coup. The era of glasnost and perestroika was over; the world would have to get used to a Brezhnev-style Soviet Union once more. Markets sold off. Then Boris Yeltsin famously stood on top of a tank, the coup collapsed, and by the Friday, Yeltsin was thrusting a piece of paper in Gorbachev’s face and demanding that he sign a law outlawing the Communist Party. Within five days, the narrative went from “Back to Brezhnev” to “Russia is no longer communist.” By the end of the year, the Soviet Union was over. Those were frighteningly swift developments, which re-echoed throughout the subsequent decades. They’re having serious ramifications in Ukraine at this moment. The roles of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, both regarded as unambiguous heroes at one point, remain controversial. But the chances that we will come to see an analogy between Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his social media posts with Yeltsin’s speech from a tank look strong. And even if Putin finds himself in the Gorbachev role, which still seems unlikely, there is ample room for things to go right or wrong in the years that come. This time around, the narrative has spun from “Putin can have what he wants” with equally stunning swiftness. The lesson for investors is to be extremely cautious, and to remember that a short-term market-unfriendly outcome (more uncertainty) is a consummation devoutly to be wished for the long term. Bloomberg



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3503776/john-authers/competing-narratives-ukraine-%E2%80%94-which-will-win

Russian Isolation Intensifies as Ukraine Fighting Rages

Russian Isolation Intensifies as Ukraine Fighting Rages

World

Asharq Al-Awsat
A view shows a destroyed armored personnel carrier (APC) on the roadside in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Feb. 26, 2022. (Reuters)

Moscow faced increasing isolation on Tuesday as President Vladimir Putin showed no sign of stopping an invasion of Ukraine, where fierce fighting and Russian bombardment have killed dozens and sparked a refugee crisis. Russia's invasion, launched last week, appears not to have achieved the decisive early gains that Putin would have hoped for. Ceasefire talks held Monday failed to reach a breakthrough and negotiators have not said when a new round would take place. The United States and its allies have sought to punish Russia economically for staging the biggest assault on a European state since World War Two. They have imposed sanctions on Russia's top businesses, oligarchs and officials, including Putin himself. But Washington has ruled out sending troops to fight Russia or enforcing a no-fly zone as requested by Ukraine, fearing an escalation between the world's top two nuclear powers. The United States and its allies have instead promised military aid to Kyiv, as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned the capital was under constant threat. "For the enemy, Kyiv is the key target," Zelenskiy said in a video message late on Monday. "We did not let them break the defense of the capital, and they send saboteurs to us ... We will neutralize them all." Zelenskiy said Russia, which calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation", was targeting a thermal power plant providing electricity to Kyiv, a city of 3 million people. Human rights groups and Ukraine's ambassador to the United States accused Russia of using cluster bombs and vacuum bombs. The United States said it had no confirmation of their use. Staging a push for the capital, Russia has massed a convoy of armored vehicles, tanks and other military equipment that stretches about 40 miles (64 km), US satellite company Maxar said. "What I think is pretty certain is Russia is off their timeline. I think they thought that within 72 hours they'd hold Kyiv," US Republican Senator Marco Rubio said after a classified briefing with top Biden administration officials. Russia says its actions are not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern neighbor's military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists. Fighting has raged around the port of Mariupol and in the eastern city of Kharkiv, where Ukrainian officials said Russian artillery attacks had killed dozens of civilians, including children. It was not possible to verify those figures. Private sector pullout More than 500,000 people have fled Ukraine, according to the United Nations refugee agency, setting off a refugee crisis as thousands await passage at European border crossings. At least 102 civilians in Ukraine have been killed since the invasion started Thursday, but the real figure could be much higher, the UN's human rights chief said. Canada said it would ban imports of Russian crude oil, and US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said the Biden administration should target the Russian energy sector with sanctions. Oil is Russia's top export earner. "We're not using the energy sector as a weapon," Graham told reporters. "We're failing to hit Putin where it hurts the most." A stream of companies pulling out of Russia is expected to grow on Tuesday and deal further blows to the country's economy. Shell, BP and Norway's Equinor all said they would exit positions in Russia, putting pressure on other Western companies with stakes in Russian oil and gas projects, such as ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies . Leading banks, airlines, and auto makers have cut shipments, ended partnerships and called Russia's actions unacceptable, with more considering similar actions. The United States imposed new sanctions on Russia's central bank and other sources of wealth on Monday, triggering a plunge in the value of the rouble, and over the weekend some Russian banks were barred from the SWIFT international payments system. Moves to isolate Russia have extended to culture and sports, as well. Two major Hollywood studios, Disney and Warner Bros., said they would pause theatrical releases of upcoming films in Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine and the unfolding humanitarian crisis. Putin, who takes pride in athleticism and is passionate about martial arts, had his honorary black belt from World Taekwondo stripped from him over the invasion, the group said.



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3503771/russian-isolation-intensifies-ukraine-fighting-rages

Nadal Beats Norrie in Acapulco for his 91st Career Title

Nadal Beats Norrie in Acapulco for his 91st Career Title

Sports

Asharq Al-Awsat
Tennis - ATP 500 - Abierto Mexicano - The Fairmont Acapulco Princess, Acapulco, Mexico - February 26, 2022 Spain's Rafael Nadal celebrates with the trophy after winning the final REUTERS/Henry Romero

Rafael Nadal said earlier in the week that he wasn't aware of his career statistics. Now, he might want to have a look at them. The 35-year-old Spaniard defeated Cameron Norrie 6-4, 6-4 on Saturday to win the Mexican Open and extend his career-best start for a season to 15-0 as he won his 91st ATP title. Nadal, who won his third title in 2022, including the Australian Open for his record 21st Grand Slam singles title, is three victories from tying Ivan Lendl's total of 94 for third place for most championships in the Open Era. Jimmy Connors leads with 109 and Roger Federer has 103. “At the end of the day I´ve always said that this kind of records needs to be measured once your career is over,” said Nadal. “Today the most important thing is that I have won a prestigious tournament.” The Mexican Open is an ATP 500-level tournament played on hard courts and this year four of the top-five players in the world started in the draw — Daniil Medvedev (2), Alexander Zverev (3), Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) and Nadal (5). Medvedev, who will rise to No. 1 in the rankings on Monday, lost to Nadal in the semifinals. Zverev was thrown out of the tournament for violently smashing his racket on the umpire’s chair moments after losing a doubles match, while Tsitsipas lost to Norrie in the other semifinal. “(Acapulco) is a tournament that started with five of the top six players in the world, it was complicated, and I ended up taking the victory,” added Nadal. “Looking back, a few weeks ago this would have looked impossible, it´s amazing how things can change in such a short span, from not being able to practice and now to be where I am today."



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3502001/nadal-beats-norrie-acapulco-his-91st-career-title

Biden, Allies to Talk Monday to Coordinate Ukraine Response

Biden, Allies to Talk Monday to Coordinate Ukraine Response

World

Asharq Al-Awsat
US President Joe Biden (Reuters)

US President Joe Biden will hold a secure call with allies and partners on Monday to discuss "developments" in Russia's attack on Ukraine and "coordinate our united response," the White House said. The administration did not elaborate on who would participate in the call, which will take place at 11:15 am (1615 GMT), AFP said. Russia has become an international pariah as its forces do battle on the streets of Ukraine's cities, and is facing a barrage of sanctions including a ban from Western airspace and key financial networks. Earlier Sunday, the G7 threatened fresh sanctions as top US diplomat Antony Blinken said the group of wealthy nations was "fully aligned" against Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Also on Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered that Russia's nuclear "deterrence forces" be put on high alert, prompting an immediate international outcry, with the United States slamming the order as "totally unacceptable." Biden's call with allies will come as the UN General Assembly debates a resolution condemning Russia's invasion of its neighbor.



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3501751/biden-allies-talk-monday-coordinate-ukraine-response

Turkey Calls for Humanitarian Truce to Evacuate Civilians from Ukraine

Turkey Calls for Humanitarian Truce to Evacuate Civilians from Ukraine

World

Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek
Russian Navy's diesel-electric submarine Rostov-on-Don sails in the Bosphorus, on its way to the Black Sea, in Istanbul, Turkey February 13, 2022. REUTERS/Yoruk Isik

Turkey on Sunday requested from Russia and Ukraine a humanitarian truce that would allow Ankara and other countries to evacuate their citizens from Ukrainian combat zones. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu spoke by phone Sunday with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and Ukraine’s Dmytro Kuleba on the latest developments in Ukraine. He mainly requested a possible cease-fire and discussed the humanitarian situation, including the evacuation of civilians, according to a briefing by the Foreign Ministry. Meanwhile, Ankara renewed its calls for Russia to end its attacks on Ukraine and start negotiations. “On the fourth day of the Ukraine war, we repeat President (Recep Tayyip) Erdogan’s call for an immediate halt of Russian attacks and the start of ceasefire negotiations. We will continue our efforts to help the people of Ukraine and end bloodshed in this unjust and unlawful war,” presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said on Twitter. Ankara then stressed that the two straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles are still open to Russian ships and that it has not changed its decision to implement the 1936 Montreux Convention, which allows Turkey the power to regulate the transit of naval warships in the Black Sea through the two straits. In a television interview, Cavusoglu said that Article 19 of the Convention is clear concerning allowing the warships of littoral states to return to their base. He added, “It is not a couple of airstrikes now, the situation in Ukraine is officially a war… We will implement the Montreux Convention.” Meanwhile, the Coastal Safety Istanbul Office directory said on Sunday that the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits are still open to Russian ships, and that it did not receive any government decision to the contrary. Late on Saturday, Zelensky thanked the Turkish President for banning passage of Russian warships to the Black Sea. “The ban on the passage of Russian warships to the Black Sea and significant military and humanitarian support for Ukraine are extremely important today,” Zelensky tweeted. But Turkish officials said Ankara is still assessing its position on closing the straits to Russian ships, pointing out that Zelensky’s message on Twitter was misinterpreted.



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3501746/turkey-calls-humanitarian-truce-evacuate-civilians-ukraine

Sunday, 27 February 2022

Putin Orders Nuclear Alert as Ukraine Fiercely Resists Russian Invasion

Putin Orders Nuclear Alert as Ukraine Fiercely Resists Russian Invasion

World

Asharq Al-Awsat
Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures while speaking to the media during a joint news conference with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban following their talks in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. (AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that his nuclear forces were on alert sparked outcry in the West as the invading troops faced stiff resistance on Monday. The UN General Assembly will hold a rare emergency session Monday to discuss the conflict, which has claimed dozens of lives and raised fears that it will displace millions of people, AFP reported. Ukraine has also said it had agreed to send a delegation to meet Russian representatives on the border with Belarus, which would be the two sides' first public contact since war erupted. Russia invaded on Thursday and quickly announced it had neutralized key Ukrainian military facilities, but fierce fighting has since raged.  Ukraine forces, backed by Western arms, are stymieing the advance of Russian troops, according to the United States, which has led Western condemnation and a campaign of sanctions. Putin ordered Sunday Russia's nuclear forces onto high alert in response to what he called "unfriendly" steps by the West. Russia has the world's largest arsenal of nuclear weapons and a huge cache of ballistic missiles. The United States, the world's second largest nuclear power, slammed Putin's order as "totally unacceptable". Germany said Putin's nuclear order was because his offensive had "halted" and was not going to plan. Ahead of the planned talks with Russia and as Ukrainian forces defended key cities, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba voiced defiance.  "We will not capitulate, we will not give up a single inch of our territory," Kuleba said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was skeptical about the talks. "As always: I do not really believe in the outcome of this meeting, but let them try," he said. - Humanitarian crisis  - On day four of an invasion that stunned the world, Ukrainian forces said Sunday they had defeated a Russian incursion into Ukraine's second city Kharkiv, 500 kilometers (310 miles) east of Kyiv.  A regional official, Oleg Sinegubov, said Kharkiv had been brought under Ukrainian control and the army was expelling Russian forces. Moscow has made better progress in the south, however, and said it was besieging the cities of Kherson and Berdyansk. Both are located close to the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and from which it launched one of several invasion forces. Ukrainian officials said they were fighting off Russian forces in several other areas, and claimed that 4,300 Russian troops had been killed. The Ukrainian army said Monday morning that Russian forces had "several times" attempted to storm the outskirts of Kiev overnight, but all attacks were repelled.  "The situation in the capital of our homeland is under control," said the army on Facebook. Local media reported strong explosion heard throughout Sunday night in both Kyiv and Kharkiv. Presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovich said on Telegram early Monday the capital had been targeted overnight by three Russian missile strikes, one of which was intercepted. The southern city of Berdiansk is now occupied by Russian soldiers, he added. Western sources said the intensity of the resistance had apparently caught Moscow by surprise. Ukraine has reported 352 civilian deaths, including 14 children, since the invasion began. Russia has acknowledged that a number of its forces had been killed or injured. The United Nations has put the civilian toll at 64 while the EU said more than seven million people could be displaced by the conflict. "We are witnessing what could become the largest humanitarian crisis on our European continent in many, many years," the EU commissioner for crisis management Janez Lenarcic said. Ukraine has called on its own civilians to fight Russia, with a brewery in Lviv in the country's west switching its production line from beers to bombs, making Molotov cocktails for the volunteer fighters. At the Medyka border crossing with Poland, volunteer Jasinska said the long line of arrivals, mostly women and children, need warm clothes. Crossing Medyka with his family, Ajmal Rahmani, an Afghan who fled Afghanistan for Ukraine four months before the US withdrawal, told AFP: "I run from one war, come to another country and another war starts. Very bad luck". - 'Stand together' - The United States and its allies continued to try and build economic and military pressure. The White House said it would hold a secure call with allies and partners Monday to discuss "developments" in Russia's attack on Ukraine and "coordinate our united response".  The United States and Europe "need to really stand together... to both the aggressive actions of Russia against Ukraine but also the threatening rhetoric coming from Moscow," said NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg. NATO will deploy its rapid response force for the first time to bolster its eastern flank. EU member states also closed their airspace to Russian planes and many pledged arms for Ukraine -- but stressed they would not themselves intervene militarily. Brussels announced it would provide 450 million euros ($500 million) for Ukraine to buy weapons and ban Russian central bank transactions, as well as restricting two Moscow-run media outlets. The West said it would remove some Russian banks from the SWIFT bank messaging system, and freeze central bank assets. The Kremlin has brushed off sanctions, including those targeting Putin personally, as a sign of Western impotence. However the European Central Bank warned Monday that the European subsidiary of the Russian state-owned Sberbank was facing bankruptcy. The Russian ruble fell almost 30 percent on Monday morning. British energy giant BP announced Sunday it was pulling its 19.75-percent stake in Rosneft, a blow to Russia's key oil and gas sector, which is partly reliant on Western technology.  Also in response to hostilities, FIFA ordered Russia to play its home international fixtures in neutral venues and warned it was considering banning it from the 2022 World Cup. Oil prices have surged in response to the crisis, with West Texas Intermediate crude up more than six percent  and Brent up by more than five in trade Monday. Putin has said Russia's actions are justified because it is defending Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. The rebels have been fighting Ukrainian government forces for eight years in a conflict that has killed more than 14,000 people.



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3501616/putin-orders-nuclear-alert-ukraine-fiercely-resists-russian-invasion

Why Is Putin at War Again? Because He Keeps Winning.

Why Is Putin at War Again? Because He Keeps Winning.

Opinion

Chris Miller
Chris Miller -

There is no world leader today with a better track record when it comes to using military power than President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Whether against Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 or in Syria since 2015, the Russian military has repeatedly converted battlefield successes into political victories. Russia’s rearmament over the past decade and a half has been unmatched by a comparable increase in Western capabilities. So it is no surprise why Russia feels emboldened to use its military power while the West stands by. Russia’s past three wars are textbook examples of how to use military force in limited ways to achieve political goals. The invasion of Georgia in 2008 lasted five days but forced that country into humiliating political concessions. In Ukraine in 2014, regular Russian military units were deployed at scale for a few weeks, but this proved enough to force Kyiv to sign a painful peace deal. When Russia intervened in Syria in 2015, some Western analysts predicted a disaster along the lines of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which began in 1979 and ended, after a decade of quagmire, in retreat. Instead, Syria’s civil war served as a testing ground for Russia’s most advanced weaponry. For the past decade, Americans have come to believe that Russia’s strength lies in hybrid tactics — cyberwarfare, misinformation campaigns, covert operations — and its ability to meddle in other countries’ domestic politics. Yet as we have searched for Russian phantoms behind every misinformed Facebook post, Russia has replaced the poorly equipped army it inherited from the Soviet Union with a modern fighting force, featuring everything from new missiles to advanced electronic warfare systems. Today the threat to Europe’s security is not hybrid warfare but hard power, visible in the cruise missiles that have struck across Ukraine. “We are 50 percent-plus of global G.D.P.,” Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, argued recently, contrasting this to Russia’s unimpressive 3 percent share of the world’s economic output. However, economies don’t fight wars; militaries do. America’s economic power was tested when Mr. Biden threatened tough sanctions if Russia were to invade Ukraine; Mr. Putin did so anyway, betting that hard power would carry the day. There’s still no doubt that America’s military has better trained troops and more capable systems in aggregate. However, what matters is not theoretical military matchups but the ability to use force for specific aims. Russia has developed precisely the capabilities needed to rebuild its influence in Eastern Europe. The United States, meanwhile, has watched its room for maneuver in the region steadily shrink, hemmed in by Russian antiaircraft systems and cyber- and electronic warfare threats. Letting the military balance in Europe shift in Russia’s favor was a choice. The United States has itself partly to blame. Even after Russia’s first attacks on Ukraine in 2014, America’s reinforcements on the continent were only enough to slow the rate of improvement in Russia’s position. The Biden administration has presided over military spending cuts, after inflation is considered. America’s roughly $700 billion defense budget may look impressive, but Russia has the advantage of paying less for troops’ salaries and for domestically produced equipment. Adjusting for these differences, Russia’s defense budget has grown far more rapidly than America’s over the past two decades. European allies have even more to answer for: Germany and other European countries must wake up from the fantasy that peace is their birthright. They used to have serious fighting power. It is time to rebuild it. It may be that, in trying to swallow all of Ukraine, Mr. Putin has finally overstepped. A long occupation of Ukraine would stretch Russia’s capabilities, especially because its military advantages will be less significant if the conflict shifts into Ukraine’s populous cities. However, we should not simply assume that Ukraine will become Mr. Putin’s Afghanistan or his Iraq because other leaders have made their own errors. Mr. Putin could simply choose to destroy Ukraine and leave the West to pick up the pieces. Such a dismembered, dysfunctional Ukraine could well suit his interests. Russia’s recent wars have been carefully calculated and limited in cost. There’s no guarantee that this conflict won’t be, too. The US strategy of making public intelligence about Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine was clever, but Mr. Putin has called our bluff. It was once popular to mock the Russian president for his 19th-century worldview, but his use of military power to bolster Russia’s influence has worked in the 21st century. The West’s assumption that the arc of history naturally bends in its direction is looking naïve. So, too, is the decision to let our military advantage slip. Soft power and economic influence are fine capabilities to have, but they cannot stop Russian armor as it rolls toward Kyiv. The New York Times



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3501506/chris-miller/why-putin-war-again-because-he-keeps-winning

Washington Hopes Iran’s Lead Negotiator Returns to Vienna Talks with ‘Positive View’

Washington Hopes Iran’s Lead Negotiator Returns to Vienna Talks with ‘Positive View’

Iran

Asharq Al-Awsat
A policeman stands at the entrance to the Palace Coburg where closed-door nuclear talks with Iran take place in Vienna, Austria, February 8, 2022. (AP Photo/Lisa Lutner)

Negotiators have made significant progress in the last week on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal but very tough issues remain, a senior US State Department official said on Friday. The US official said he hoped Iran’s lead negotiator would return in the coming days to Vienna, where the talks are taking place, “with a positive view” but that even if he did, there were still difficult issues on the table. “We hope that when Iran comes back, it comes back in with a pre-disposition to try to resolve this quickly,” the official told reporters on condition that he not be named. “But there were still disagreements for which there is not a solution that's on the table,” Reuters quoted him as saying. He declined to name the sticking points and would not be drawn on whether Washington had persuaded Tehran to agree to follow-on negotiations on its nuclear program, its development of ballistic missiles or support for regional proxies. The broad aim of the talks is to return to the original 2015 bargain of lifting sanctions against Iran, including those that have slashed its oil sales, in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear activities that extend the time Tehran would need to make enough enriched uranium for an atomic bomb if it chose to. The US official said a deal, if one can be reached, would in many ways track the terms of the original accord on Iran’s levels of uranium enrichment, the stockpile of enriched uranium it may hold, and the numbers of centrifuges it may operate. However, he left open the possibility of some modifications to account the additional sanctions that then-President Donald Trump imposed on Iran after pulling the United States out of the deal in 2018 and the nuclear advances that Iran has since made. The official also said there has not been any deal reached in separate negotiations about the release of four US citizens whom the United States believes have been wrongfully detained by Iran. Last week, sources close to the negotiations said a prisoner swap between Iran and the United States is expected soon. “Now I believe some of them will be released, maybe five or six of them. But those talks about prisoners are not linked to the nuclear agreement, rather associated with it. This is a humanitarian measure by Iran,” Reuters quoted a senior Iranian official as saying on Tuesday. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Friday that the US will continue to engage with Russia over efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even though Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine had made it a “pariah on the world stage.” Price said US officials would now only engage with Russia counterparts on issues of “fundamental to our national security interest,” including Vienna talks. “The fact that Russia has now invaded Ukraine should not give Iran the green light to develop a nuclear weapon,” Price stressed.



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3499691/washington-hopes-iran%E2%80%99s-lead-negotiator-returns-vienna-talks-%E2%80%98positive-view%E2%80%99

Putin Can Safely Ignore Russian Critics of His War -- For Now

Putin Can Safely Ignore Russian Critics of His War -- For Now

Opinion

Leonid Bershidsky
Leonid Bershidsky -

The day before the fake “referendum” that handed Crimea to Vladimir Putin’s Russia in 2014, I marched against the annexation with tens of thousands other Muscovites — but a majority of Russians supported the move, and Putin’s popularity, measured by independent sociologists, soared to highs not seen before or after. Now that the dictator has launched an all-out attack on Ukraine, there will be no large-scale protests and no popularity bump. Seven years later, Russia is a different country — one that allows Putin to disregard it. That, however, is hardly sustainable. At the time of the Crimea adventure, Russia still had an active political opposition. Former deputy prime minister Boris Nemtsov was still alive and protesting loudly against the takeover. Most of my friends saw the move as the end of Russia’s civilized European path, a major defeat for the freedom project launched by the fall of the Soviet Union. By 2022, the opposition has been crushed, chased into exile or underground. Nemtsov was assassinated in 2015. When Alexei Navalny speaks out against the war on Ukraine, he does so from a penal colony where he’s been locked up for a year and where he’s being tried on further trumped-up charges. And when one of Navalny’s trusted lieutenants, Leonid Volkov, curses Putin on Telegram and expresses the hope that the dictator has bitten off more than he can chew, he does so from relative safety in a European Union country. Some artists, TV personalities, writers and social network influences — not all of them still living in Russia — have expressed their shock and disgust. Nobel Peace Prize-winner Dmitry Muratov, the editor of Novaya Gazeta, still allowed to publish under a compromise with the Kremlin, has promised to put out an edition in both Russian and Ukrainian in protest against the war. Journalists, academics and more than 100 local legislators have signed antiwar appeals. But none of them will lead a big march through Moscow streets: Putin’s repression machine now works pre-emptively to neutralize protest. Activist Marina Litvinovich, who called for street protests on Thursday, was detained. Those Russians who dare take to the streets across the land likely face the same prospect: Official warnings already have been issued. But although there will be no footage of big marches to prove that not all Russians accept Putin’s aggression, no polls will show a boost to Putin’s popularity, either. The regime has largely gotten rid of independent pollsters, but even the Kremlin-loyal ones aren’t registering Crimea-like approval levels. VTsIOM, for example, on Wednesday reported 73% support for the previous, much less radical Putin move — the recognition of the separatist “people’s republics” of eastern Ukraine. In 2014, the same pollster measured the popular backing of the Crimea annexation at 93%. A fresh CNN-commissioned poll shows 50% support in Russia for military action to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO — but even that number seems high. Russian respondents’ mistrust of pollsters — what if they work for the authorities? — is a constant source of distortions. In March 2014, Putin’s support hit 80%, according to one of the few remaining independent pollsters, the Levada Center — and kept increasing as Crimea was integrated into Russia. Last month, with propaganda already blaring an anti-Ukraine message, Putin’s rating stood at 69%, close to the pre-Crimea level. It’s unlikely to rise when Western sanctions on Russia hit full force — and Russians know these are coming. There are lines at banks to draw dollars and euros. The biggest state bank, Sberbank, briefly published a notice on its website that it might soon be hit by sanctions, making things difficult for more than 100 million clients, but then quickly took it down, claiming a software error. The Crimea moment was euphoric for many, since the peninsula was widely seen as both historically and ethnically Russian. Hardly anyone spoke Ukrainian there even pre-2014, and a lack of respect for Ukrainian authorities was palpable. The large Russian naval base, with a history of many wars, added to the perception, heavily promoted by propaganda outlets, that Crimea was “coming home.” But Russian missiles raining on the outskirts of Kyiv and Kharkiv, arms depots blowing up near peaceful Ukrainian cities — that, for many of the same Russians who welcomed the 2014 annexation, is the stuff of nightmares. Ukrainians are broadly perceived as a fraternal people; according to official statistics, Ukraine is at the top of the list of countries whose citizens Russians are most likely to marry. No matter what Putin might say about “denazifying” Ukraine, too many ordinary Russians have family ties and friendships in the neighboring country; they know their friends and relatives are not Nazis. Russia’s biggest YouTube star, Yury Dud, spoke for many compatriots just before the invasion when he said, I grew up in Russia, Russia is my motherland, and I’m proud to have a tattoo of the Russian tricolor on my forearm. But these days, my support goes to Ukraine, the birthplace of my kin and home to my friends. Not that Putin cares, at least for now. It’s quite possible that all the screw-tightening the regime has conducted in the last two years, the crackdown on the opposition, the greatly increased risks for street protest, came in preparation for this moment. Putin is so insulated from the Russian street now that his regime is not in danger, no matter what drastic and unpopular steps he takes. What is less certain is the longer-term picture, with increasing economic isolation, potential paralysis in financial markets, the loss of hydrocarbon export clients. Russia’s financial cushion, including $643 billion in international reserves, can last for a long time, but not forever if the West’s resolve to maintain punitive sanctions endures. In a country as big as Russia, maintaining a climate of repression amid economic decline will not be an easy proposition even for a dictator as experienced and ruthless as Putin. Bloomberg



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3499581/leonid-bershidsky/putin-can-safely-ignore-russian-critics-his-war-now

Russia Invaded Ukraine. What Happens Next?

Russia Invaded Ukraine. What Happens Next?

Opinion

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed - Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly magazine Al-Majalla. He is also a senior columnist in the daily newspapers Al-Madina and Al-Bilad.

There will be no ravaging World War III to end all life on earth. But there might be worse: protracted wars on multiple frontlines fought with traditional weapons and run by nuclear powers. Even without the prospect of a World War breaking out, the Ukraine crisis stretches far beyond Ukraine itself, with deeper and riskier dimensions than believed. The NATO fears this is only the beginning and knows not what President Vladimir Putin’s plan after Ukraine is. Do the Russians have their eyes set on taking over –or taking back– several former USSR states under the same guises we heard this week, in the name of history, geography, land, religion, debts, protecting national security, responding to NATO expansion, and responding to the mayday calls of a separatist region or an opposition group? Russia’s military activity in Belarus and Tajikistan reinforces the belief that the Putinian Russia project has just begun. Putin is a Russian Imperial Tsardom man through and through. He dislikes Bolshevik Russia, despite his mantra about taking the Soviet Union as a historical reference in giving back to Russia what is “rightfully” Russia’s. With the annexation of all or most of Ukraine, the world, or my generation, at least, will have seen a global affair come full circle with the return of the Cold War. So, what could be Russia’s next step? Will Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia be the next prey? There are technically 15 former USSR states that nationalist Russians consider theirs and blame the West for their loss, a theory posited by Putin himself. In a previous speech, the Russian President outlined a political map of utmost importance to grasp what is happening now and what the future may hold, saying: “The leadership of the Communist Party made a lot of mistakes that led to the collapse of the USSR, planting a ‘time bomb’ under the Russian State, at the time called the USSR, by allowing Soviet republics the right to self-determination.” The deeper dimension of the conflict is Putinian Russia’s determination to expand, at a time when the NATO and the West find themselves in a dire strait: going into a direct clash with a nuclear power is off the table, and entering Ukraine is a political statement that augurs a different world with as-of-yet unknown dimensions, even in other conflict zones across the globe. A political solution seems far-fetched, such as the Ukraine crisis pushing major powers to seek a new coexistence formula built on the premise of refraining from using force to resolve conflicts, while taking into account the provision of security guarantees. In fact, this is the justification that Moscow reiterates in its objections to the NATO. There is no doubt that since the end of the Cold War, the world has missed the bipolar model. For all its faults, bipolarity at least guaranteed stability on major fronts. The invasion of Ukraine did not come as a surprise. It was rather expected, as was the use of gas against Europe. Still, there will be no military solution at the level of major powers. As such, it is feared that the West will go for a military option that uses other frontlines in other states, in a bid to warn Moscow that what happened in Ukraine cannot happen again elsewhere. As for economic sanctions, they are known to be an ineffective weapon, especially when used against systems that are willing to pay the price, dear as it may be. But ironically, the exorbitant costs of Ukraine’s invasion are being borne by the West and the other states of the world, what with the worsening inflation and the price hikes in vital commodities, like energy and wheat.



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3499561/abdulrahman-al-rashed/russia-invaded-ukraine-what-happens-next

Saturday, 26 February 2022

Putin’s Refugees Will Make or Break Europe

Putin’s Refugees Will Make or Break Europe

Opinion

Andreas Kluth
Andreas Kluth -

Just on Day One of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the European Commission, about 120,000 people fled their homes — becoming “internally displaced,” in the bureaucratic jargon. Roads and highways out of Kyiv and other cities were clogged. Again, that was just the first day. How many Ukrainians will try to escape their country in the coming weeks and months depends on how brutally Russian President Vladimir Putin will subjugate it. And brutal it'll be, by the looks of it. Between one million and five million civilians could flee westward and into the European Union. The refugee crisis of 2022 is likely to make its 2015 antecedent look orderly, and rival that of 1945. The Ukrainians’ first destinations will be the four EU countries that are direct neighbors: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. Of these, the first three belong to the Schengen area, which will allow Ukrainians to enter and stay for up to 90 days without a visa. Unlike the million or so Syrians, Afghans and others who came in 2015-16, this year’s tired, poor and huddled masses will be able to walk, drive or ride across the borders legally. Right now, they’re likely to be embraced with compassion and hospitality — the first refugee trains arriving in Munich in 2015 were met by Germans holding bottled water and teddy bears. Poland and the other countries, supported by the European Union, are preparing special medical trains and logistics to temporarily house multitudes. But how will the EU’s societies react in the medium and longer term? In 2015, an anti-migrant backlash formed even in liberal countries from Sweden to Germany. The eastern member states formerly behind the Iron Curtain closed their doors to migrants almost completely. Poland and Hungary, both led by populist far-right governments then as now, became the leaders of an anti-refugee EU resistance often laced with xenophobia. In that obstructionist spirit, Warsaw and Budapest have since knee-capped all attempts by the EU to reform its migration regime. Called the Dublin system, it requires migrants to ask for asylum only in the member state they physically enter first. In 2015, this left the countries along the migration routes from Syria — above all Greece — exposed. Overwhelmed, they ignored Dublin and waved the refugees onwards to Austria, Germany and beyond. Germany and others suggested a new regime, with joint policing around Europe’s external borders and a mechanism to resettle asylum seekers internally in proportion to member states’ size and wealth. But Poland, Hungary and others balked at all entreaties to show solidarity. It didn’t help that both Warsaw and Budapest have simultaneously waged a rhetorical and bureaucratic guerrilla war against Brussels and the EU. They’ve undermined the rule of law, press and other freedoms. The EU has disciplinary proceedings underway against both. There’s even been talk of finding a way to kick them out of the club. This time, though, everything could be different. Poland and Hungary will be on the front line, not the periphery. The refugees, who were mostly Muslims in 2015, are Slavic kin, at least for Poles and Slovakians. Poland is already home to about 2 million Ukrainians. And the cause of the migrants’ despair will not be the distant Syrian villain Bashar al-Assad but Europe’s — and especially Poland’s — arch-bogeyman. That’s the one in the Kremlin. Until recently, an inability to manage migration looked like one way the EU could fail as an entity and idea. That’s what its enemies — like Putin and his bestie, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko — try to exploit, by herding refugees toward the bloc whenever they can. But in 2022, the penny may finally drop in all 27 member states. The EU, an idealistic peace project based on soft power and democratic values, must realize that it has real, nuclear-armed enemies, which it must stare down as one. That may mean finally forming a European Army, and syncing it with NATO. But most immediately, it means burying internal hatchets, and reforming migration. Poland and Hungary should immediately drop all their other sniping against Brussels and ask for its help in accommodating the Ukrainian refugees. The EU should give that help graciously and then find new systems to deal with refugees and other problems. Putin just launched a vicious assault on Ukraine, the post-Cold War order, and indeed truth itself. If anything good is ever to come from this disaster, let it be that he accidentally unites Europe. Bloomberg



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3499551/andreas-kluth/putin%E2%80%99s-refugees-will-make-or-break-europe

The Environment We Want

The Environment We Want

Opinion

Najib Saab
Najib Saab - Secretary-General of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED) and editor-in-chief of Environment & Development magazine

What environment do we want and what organization can lead international environmental action? On the verge of the fiftieth anniversary of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), conceived at the United Nations Conference on Human Environment in Stockholm in June 1972, many questions remain unresolved. The UN Environment Assembly, which kicks off tomorrow at UNEP headquarters in Nairobi, will be an occasion to discuss what has been achieved in 50 years and try to decide which UNEP we want. The idea from the onset revolved around protecting the environment by abating pollution and reversing the depletion of non-renewable resources, in order to preserve the natural balance and ensure the continuation of human life. Sustainable development, thus, was not a newly invented concept, but rather rooted in the Stockholm spirit. While unrealistic slogans and far-fetched aspirations were abound in Stockholm conference, the establishment of UNEP created the institutional framework for international environmental action, which was embodied in treaties and agreements that set standards, restrictions, and goals. If countries had adhered to their promises in the seventies and eighties, there would have been no need to set new goals at the Earth Summit on environment and development in Rio in 1992, and add to them yet more goals at the sustainable development summit in Johannesburg in 2002. Failure was not limited to flaws in delivering environmental promises, but development commitments as well. In the case of rich countries, the delay in putting an end to unrestrained development driven by greed and the desire to inflate numerical growth figures rather than actual real progress and quality of life, in the decades that followed Stockholm, led to continued increase in pollution rates, carbon emissions and waste of resources. But the problem is different in poor countries, where the continued environmental degradation can be attributed to corruption and weak governance on one hand, and the failure of rich countries to honor their promises, on the other. Two years before Stockholm, rich developed countries committed, in a United Nations resolution in 1970, to provide 0.7 percent of their GDP as development aid to poor countries. After 50 years, few countries have implemented this pledge, which resulted in slow implementation of essential infrastructure work, mainly related to electricity plants and grids, fresh and wastewater treatment and networks, education, health services and productive investments that create jobs. This failure to meet commitments has led to persistent poverty; extreme poverty, together with extreme wealth, are the worst enemy of the environment. Instead of implementing previous pledges, countries decided in 2000 to set new millennium development goals, to be achieved in 2015, only for other goals to be introduced under the flashy title of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with implementation date extended to 2030. It is worthy to put clear rules linking environment to development, which was achieved at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, based on the fact that natural resources are the tools and raw materials for development. But 50 years after the establishment of the United Nations Environment Program as a defender of the global environment, some still use the slogan of Sustainable Development to place development over environment, and consider environmental protection an obstacle to the advancement of human race. This fundamentally contradicts the concept of sustainable development, as development programs cannot be sustained if they ignore irreparable environmental damages and losses. The forthcoming meeting of UNEP’s General Assembly will be somewhat subdued, due to corona virus measures; this is certainly not how UNEP hoped to celebrate its fiftieth anniversary. The general theme of the meeting is “Strengthening Actions for Nature to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.” It focuses on protecting and reconfiguring natural resources to become a powerful tool for development, and embodying UNEP to better contribute to the achievement of the environmental content of the Sustainable Development Goals. Perhaps UNEPʼs most prominent achievement during its past fifty years has been placing the environment on the popular, governmental and international agenda, and developing a legal framework through dozens of international agreements and treaties, from pollution and waste to seas, desertification, biodiversity and climate change. With the multiplicity of its tasks and organs, it was necessary to enhance its organizational structure and redefine its role and goals; this has often affected UNEP’s original identity and raison d’être. UNEP was established in 1972 as an international agency within the framework of the United Nations, governed by a Board of Governors of 56 countries chosen in turn, and administered by a secretariat headed by an Executive Director, who is elected by the General Assembly, based on recommendation by the UN Secretary-General, after open nominations and consultations with member states. This differs from the Specialized Organizations, which are independent of the UN Secretariat and are directly governed by Member States, who elect their top executive. UNEP succeeded in leading international environmental work during the term of its founder, Maurice Strong, between 1972 and 1974, and his successor Mustafa Kamal Tolba, whose term lasted for 18 years until 1992. The fact that the UN Secretary-General proposes the candidate for the position of Executive Director did not constitute an impediment to Strong and Tolba, who considered that their ultimate boss was the UN General Assembly, which elected them, together with UNEP’s Governing Council. Tolba always maintained that being a “program”, not an independent specialized organization, was appropriate for UNEPʼs mandate as a coordinating body for environmental work within the United Nations system. If it were an independent body, other international organizations and programs, responsible for development, health, agriculture, meteorology and education, for example, would reject UNEPʼs interference in their work. Tolba executed his full authority as head of the Environment Coordination Board, which constitutes of international agencies with environmental aspects in their work domains. The situation began to change with Tolbaʼs departure in 1992. On one hand, the international development agencies began to scoop from UNEPʼs plate, following the Environment and Development summit in Rio. On the other hand, the new Executive Director, who came from an administrative position in the Canadian government, acted more as an employee of the UN Secretariat, rather than the head of an international body elected by states in the UN General Assembly. The two executive directors who came immediately after tried to restore UNEPʼs independence, attempting to turn it into an independent global environmental organization rather than a UN organ. In the absence of sufficient international support for these efforts, a compromise was reached in 2014, when the UN General Assembly approved replacing UNEP’s 56-state Governing Council with the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA), which includes all UN member states. However, the policies pursued by UNEP management soon after that change backfired, as it resulted in transforming its image into a sort of a department within the UN Secretariat, instead of enhancing its independence. What accelerated this path was dropping the name UNEP in 2016 in favor of a new one ‘UN Environment’, a hybrid expression which robbed UNEP of its identity and wiped its memory. Recent efforts to rectify the consequences of this disastrous misjudgment were not strong enough. Galvanizing international environmental action needs to reclaim the dedication, grace and leadership style of Maurice Strong and Mustafa Tolba. This is the only way to protect UNEP from the domination of international development and funding agencies, who control the money, and prevent turning it into a department of the United Nations Secretariat in New York.



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3499546/najib-saab/environment-we-want

Study: African Nations Forced to Spend on Climate Adaptation

Study: African Nations Forced to Spend on Climate Adaptation

Varieties

Asharq Al-Awsat
A herd of adult and baby elephants walk in the dawn light as the highest mountain in Africa, Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania, sits topped with snow in the background, seen from Amboseli National Park in southern Kenya, Dec. 17, 2012 . (AP file photo)

African countries are having to spend up to five percent of their annual economic output to shield themselves against the impacts of climate change, even though they emit the least greenhouse gases in the world, a report released Saturday said. The findings, published by the Nairobi-based think tank Power Shift Africa, focus on the costs of warding off climate impacts by strengthening transport infrastructure, shoring up communications, building flood defenses and other preventative measures. The threat is forcing nations to divert "already stretched" resources to climate self-defense, the report said. The survey focused on seven countries from around the continent, AFP reported. Ethiopia -- which is also fighting a brutal war in its northern region -- was the hardest-hit, spending up to 5.6 percent of its GDP to ward off climate-related disasters, it said. Conflict-wracked South Sudan, which has been reeling from heavy rains and flash floods affecting more than 850,000 people, is on track to spend up to 3.1 percent of its GDP every year, the report said. In West Africa, meanwhile, Sierra Leone will be spending as much as $90 million (80 million euros) a year -- 2.3 percent of its economic output -- on climate adaptation, even though its citizens on average generate 80 times less carbon than US residents. "This report shows the deep injustice of the climate emergency," said Mohamed Adow, head of the Power Shift Africa. "It is simply not acceptable for the costs to fall on those people who are suffering the most while contributing the least to climate change." - 'Massive' help needed - Adow said African nations needed a "massive" amount of help to withstand the onslaught of climate change. African economies have long struggled to find funds to limit emissions while also adapting to climate change. A study published last November warned that the world's 65 most vulnerable nations will see GDP drop 20 percent on average by 2050 and 64 percent by 2100 if the world heats up by 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit). That research, commissioned by Christian Aid, found that eight of the top 10 most affected countries are in Africa, with the remaining two in South America. All 10 countries would see their GDP fall by 40 percent even if global temperature rises are capped at 1.5C, in keeping with the most ambitious Paris Agreement goal, the study said. To date, Earth's average surface temperature has risen 1.1C compared to late 19th-century levels. The next COP27 climate summit will be held in Egypt, seeking to build on gains made at the previous conference in Glasgow last year. Pledges were made at COP26 to phase down coal-fired power, curb methane emissions and boost financial aid to developing countries. Rich countries have also vowed to muster $100 billion annually in climate aid for poor nations. But only a part of that funding promise has so far been earmarked for adaptation, as opposed to measures to mitigate carbon emissions. A report last year by the UN Environment Program (UNEP) found that developing countries will need to spend up to $300 billion a year on adaptation measures by 2030, and up to $500 billion annually by 2050.



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3497961/study-african-nations-forced-spend-climate-adaptation

Man Utd’s Rashford ‘Not Happy’ with Poor Form, Says Rangnick

Man Utd’s Rashford ‘Not Happy’ with Poor Form, Says Rangnick

Sports

Asharq Al-Awsat
Marcus Rashford. (AFP)

Manchester United interim manager Ralf Rangnick said Marcus Rashford was "not happy" with his poor run of form, and urged the forward to take inspiration from team mate Jadon Sancho's recent resurgence. Rashford, who made his return from shoulder surgery in October, has had one of his worst seasons and was desperately poor in United's midweek 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League. "I am pretty sure he is not happy with his performance right now, but it doesn't help if we discuss that every week and talk about our thoughts about what it might be," Rangnick told a news conference ahead of Saturday's game against Watford. "In training he is in top form, that's why I decided to play him (against Atletico). Now it's about having that transformation from training performance to the competition in the league and this is the next step he has to take. "We had a very similar situation with Jadon (Sancho) six or seven weeks ago. He is the best example of what can happen. It's the player himself who has to perform and get the best out of his own performance." United are fourth in the Premier League, a point ahead of Arsenal but having played two more games than the London club.



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3497941/man-utd%E2%80%99s-rashford-%E2%80%98not-happy%E2%80%99-poor-form-says-rangnick

Syria Is the 'Hostage' of Russia's Ukrainian Adventure

Syria Is the 'Hostage' of Russia's Ukrainian Adventure

Features

London - Ibrahim Hamidi
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) visit Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base, southeast of Latakia in Syria, December 11, 2017. (EPA)

It won't be a stretch to say that Syria will be among the countries most affected by the Russian attack on Ukraine, with all its military and political implications and whether President Vladimir Putin manages to "change the regime" in Kyiv or languish in the "Ukrainian swamp." The situation in Syria has long been tied to other crises in recent years, such as the ones in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, given that the main players there are the Russians and Turks. The players had often exchanged blows on the front to deliver messages and carry out geopolitical deals. However, the clearest military connection lies between Ukraine and Russia: - Assad-Yanukovych: After former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled to Russia in February 2014, Putin retaliated to the revolution in Ukraine by annexing Crimea in March that same year. Moscow at the time also demanded that Damascus take a harder line at the peace talks that were being held in Geneva, adding that it should not yield to the Syrian revolution. During a meeting at the time with Mikhail Bogdanov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia and Special Representative of the President of Russia for the Middle East, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told him he will not act like Yanukovych and flee Syria, choosing instead to "stay and persevere." - Military intervention: Even though Moscow had objected to the western intervention in Iraq and Libya, it yielded to Damascus and Tehran's pleas that it intervene in Syria. In September 2015, Putin intervened militarily in Syria to prevent "regime change". In exchange, Russia reaped major military privileges, most significant of which was establishing a permanent military base in Hmeimim and a naval base in Tartus. Not only did Russia turn the tide of war in the regime's favor, it also turned Syria into a military testing ground. Observers noted that the images of the fighting in Ukraine look largely like those that were coming out of western and central Syria in 2016. - Warm waters: Deploying Russian forces by the Mediterranean had long been a czarist dream and it was achieved by transforming the small port of Tartus into a naval base, not too far from NATO's borders in Turkey. Russia underlined this "strategic achievement" on the eve of the Ukrainian invasion by holding the largest naval maneuvers in the Mediterranean, where NATO forces were also holding drills. Moreover, Russian Defense Minister Serge Shoigu was at the Hmeimim to oversee the exercise, demonstrating that Moscow now views Syria as an "extension of its national security". - Symbolic signs: It was no coincidence that Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mikdad was in Moscow the day Putin declared the "independence" of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics. Mikdad said the declaration was in line with international law and the United Nations Charter. Assad on Thursday hailed the attack on Ukraine as a "correction of history" after the break up of the Soviet Union. Syria had also previously recognized several separatist republics controlled by Moscow, a sign that it is part of the "Russian world" envisioned by Putin. - Spearhead: Moscow views the Hmeimim base, which boasts the S-400 and S-300 systems, as the spearhead of its confrontation with NATO, which has a base in Incirlik in southern Turkey. Putin was able to win over Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan, who has been disappointed with the American support to Kurds in eastern Syria. The best example of this is Ankara's refusal of Ukraine's request to close the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to Russian ships. In return, Shoigu, on his latest visit to Syria, rejected Damascus' request to wage a wide-scale offensive against the Idlib province in the northwest. - Iron Dome: Turkey is not the only one treading carefully with the Russian attack on Ukraine. Reports have said Israel has refused to offer military support to Kyiv because it fears angering Putin and having the freedom it has in attacking "Iranian positions" in Syria restricted, especially amid reports that one of the outcomes of the Ukrainian war would be further Russian-Iranian rapprochement. - Contact lines: The "borders" of the three "zones of influence" in Syria have remained largely unchanged in the past two years. The confrontation in Ukraine may, however, expose them to several tests. Washington has declared that the collision avoidance agreement with Russia in Syria still stands. Moscow has also rejected Damascus' request to attack Idlib. These "understandings" will undoubtedly be tested as developments in Ukraine unravel. The situation in Ukraine will likely also impact the fate of the resolution on the cross-border aid deliveries in Syria. - Economic cost: The crisis in Ukraine will not only have political and military implications on Syria, but major economic ones as well, especially since Damascus relies heavily on food and oil support from Moscow to grapple with western sanctions.



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3497581/syria-hostage-russias-ukrainian-adventure

Friday, 25 February 2022

How to Repair the Pandemic’s Damage to Cancer Care

How to Repair the Pandemic’s Damage to Cancer Care

Opinion

Lisa Jarvis
Lisa Jarvis -

In the pandemic’s third year, we are beginning to discern the total picture of Covid-19’s damage. Beneath the coronavirus’s own staggering death toll and the suffering it has inflicted lie many layers of collateral damage. One of the largest of these is Covid’s disruption to cancer prevention and care. Cancer patients are among the most vulnerable to catching Covid, and if exposed they’re much more likely than other people to end up in the hospital or to die. They’re also among the least likely to benefit from vaccines, because cancer treatment weakens the immune response. This is why, as Welela Tereffe, the chief medical executive at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, puts it, “cancer patients rely on everybody else to also do their part” to keep the virus in check. But everyone did not do their part to get vaccinated and help slow the coronavirus’s spread. What’s more, the waves of infections put pressure on hospitals and their employees, disrupted routine screenings, and sent cancer centers scrambling to ensure a continuum of care. All this has come at great cost to the physical and emotional well-being of cancer patients and their families — something that came into stark relief for me in October, when my father-in-law went into the hospital in severe pain and walked out two days later as a pancreatic cancer patient. A doctor delivered the bleak diagnosis the morning after my father-in-law had spent the night in a hallway — the hospital was overrun with Covid patients — with no family members beside him to help absorb the blow. The pandemic has also subjected cancer patients to many daily indignities. Prescriptions have been difficult to fill when pharmacies have been closed due to staff shortages. Wait times have been long for appointments with counselors who can help patients process a difficult diagnosis. Tests and procedures have been delayed because resources are stretched. Covid’s most quantifiable toll on cancer care has been its effect on screening. In just the first half-year of the pandemic, from January to July of 2020, 10 million screening tests were missed, according to a recent report from the American Association for Cancer Research. New cancer diagnoses, in turn, dropped 13% in 2020, according to a recent study of the Veterans Affairs health-care system. And the backlog persists. Some people remain unwilling to go in for preventive doctor visits because they’re worried about the risk of exposure to Covid. And once a routine colonoscopy or mammogram has been delayed, doctors know, it’s very easy to keep putting it off. The danger is that when people finally go in for missed screenings, their tests will show more advanced cancers. The question now is whether the health-care infrastructure will be robust enough to handle a wave of new cancer patients. Covid has depleted the health-care workforce. In the past two years, about 20% of American health-care workers left the field, according to Morning Consult. This attrition will have an outsized effect on the health of patients in the long run, says Tatiana Prowell, an associate professor of oncology at Johns Hopkins Medicine. With no fast way to replenish the workforce, Prowell worries her patients will ultimately be worse off for years to come. To rebuild support systems for cancer prevention and treatment, the oncology community should build on some of the practices it adopted during the pandemic, including more patient-centered approaches that made it easier for more people to access high-quality care. During Covid, telemedicine became more widely accepted for cancer care in many places. Clinical trial participants were allowed to sign consent forms remotely, get routine tests and scans in their own neighborhoods, check in with their oncologists virtually, and have experimental drugs shipped directly to their homes. Such small changes can add up to a big difference in the day-to-day lives of cancer patients and their families. Telemedicine meant that in his final weeks, my father-in-law didn’t spend his limited energy on getting to a doctor’s office, and his whole family could be with him to hear from his oncologist or palliative-care team. Changes like these can improve access to health care for the poor, for people living in rural areas and for communities of color. When a cancer center is a few hours, or even a plane ride, away, or a patient lacks child care or can’t miss work, good care is too often out of reach. After the pandemic subsides, the cancer community might be tempted to fall back into old habits. Hospitals and cancer centers should not only resist that urge, but they also should keep pushing for more and better ways to democratize access to care. Revitalizing the health-care infrastructure is a necessary part of that goal — and will help guarantee that future patients don’t pay the price of the pandemic. Bloomberg



from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3497556/lisa-jarvis/how-repair-pandemic%E2%80%99s-damage-cancer-care