NATO Holds Summit with Gaze on Russia - and China

Features

June 28th, 7:30am

Asharq Al-Awsat

A worker fixes a NATO poster outside the NATO Summit building ahead of the summit in Madrid, Spain, Monday, June 27, 2022. (AP)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked NATO back to first principles. Seven decades after it was founded, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is meeting in Madrid this week with an urgent need to reassert its original mission: preventing Russian aggression against Western allies. Leaders of the world’s most powerful military alliance are aiming to increase support for Ukraine's fight against Russian invasion, boost forces on NATO's eastern flank and set priorities for the coming decade - with a new emphasis on checking China’s growing international ambitions. But the gathering will also showcase the difficulties in keeping 30 nations - from tiny Iceland and Luxembourg to huge Turkey and the United States - aligned in an organization that must make decisions by consensus. Focus on Ukraine NATO was formed after World War II to counter the threat from the Soviet Union and foster cooperation in a shattered Europe. In the years after the collapse of the USSR, the alliance recast Russia not as an adversary but as a "strategic partner." No longer. Russia is NATO's dominant issue and main adversary, and the Madrid summit will be dominated by how to support Ukraine and bolster defenses along the bloc's eastern borders, where countries from Romania to the Baltic states worry they may be next in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sights. Until late last year, only around 5,000 NATO troops were deployed in the Baltic states and Poland on a rotational basis. Now hundreds of thousands of troops are on heightened alert, with 100,000 US troops in Europe, and 40,000 under direct NATO command, supported by air and naval power. The summit is set to agree to stockpile weapons and equipment in eastern Europe and to dramatically increase the number of troops based in the region or on standby in their own countries as a rapid-reaction force. There will also be more support for Ukraine to upgrade its military, still reliant on Soviet-era equipment, to modern NATO-standard gear. The alliance is trying to strike a delicate balance, letting its member nations arm Ukraine without sparking a direct confrontation between NATO and nuclear-armed Russia. That’s one reason Ukraine will not be joining NATO in the foreseeable future, despite being put on the pathway to membership, along with Georgia, in 2008. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is scheduled to address the summit by video, but he has acknowledged joining NATO is a distant prospect and is instead focusing on seeking European Union membership. Expansion of the alliance is on the cards, however. Finland and Sweden have both abandoned their nonaligned status and asked to join NATO as protection from Russia. Turkey as spoiler? But Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest army after the US, is set to play spoiler to the aspirations of Sweden and Finland - at least for now. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has insisted that he will only allow the Nordic pair to enter NATO if they change their stance on Kurdish rebel groups that Turkey considers terrorists. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg hosted talks with Turkey, Sweden and Finland last week to work toward a breakthrough, and will meet with the three countries' leaders on Tuesday, but there's no guarantee the breakthrough will come in Madrid. "Turkey has legitimate security concerns over terrorism that we need to address," Stoltenberg said. "So we will continue our talks on Finland and Sweden’s applications for NATO membership, and I look forward to finding a way forward as soon as possible." A united front? Russia’s invasion upended European security, but NATO’s members take comfort in the fact that the US is back as the pillar of Western defense after four years in which President Donald Trump derided and undermined the alliance. But there are differences within NATO on military spending. Currently only nine of the 30 members meet the organization’s target of spending 2% of Gross Domestic Product on defense. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently urged others to commit more, saying the 2% target is "a floor, not a ceiling." Cracks also could emerge over strategy on Russia and Ukraine as the war drags on and debate intensifies over what, if any, concessions Ukraine should make to end the fighting. "There are still unresolved questions around how NATO as an alliance should deal with Russia in the long term," said Alice Billon-Galland, research fellow at the Chatham House think-tank. "Do we consider that it’s unredeemable as a neighbor? And what does that mean? Or do we think that at some point we will have to sit down and negotiate a new security architecture with Russia? Allies have been on different pages when it comes to that." Checking China With the world in turmoil, the alliance will try to craft a long-term strategy that can stand the test of time. NATO will set out its goals for the coming decade in a new Strategic Concept, the document that identifies its most pressing security concerns and how it will tackle them. While Russia will remain the top issue, the document will see NATO grapple for the first time with the growing military reach of China, which has set out on an ambitious plan to expand naval bases in the Pacific and in Africa. The leaders of Japan, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand have been invited as guests to the summit for the first time. All four have been supportive of Ukraine, and Japan has its own territorial disputes with Moscow. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will discuss efforts toward achieving a "free and open" Indo-Pacific, because security in Europe and Asia is inseparable, according to Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Hirokazu Matsuno. Insecurity in Africa’s Sahel region and its threats to southern Europe could also earn a mention, as could the threats caused by climate change and the growing waves of migration driven by global warming.

from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3728421/nato-holds-summit-gaze-russia-and-china

Iran Says Seeking Long-term Cooperation with Turkey

Iran

June 28th, 6:36am

Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (R) shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (L) during their meeting in Ankara, Turkey, 27 June 2022. (EPA)

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian announced that efforts are underway to draft a document on long-term comprehensive cooperation between his country and Turkey. He made his remarks ahead of talks in Ankara on Monday with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. The officials discussed cooperation between their countries and ways to bolster them in various fields. They also tackled regional and international developments of interest, including the latest in the Iran nuclear deal negotiations. The negotiations are set to resume in Doha on Tuesday. They also covered the Syrian crisis and the war on Ukraine. Diplomatic sources said Abdollahian and Cavusoglu discussed the tensions between Israel and Iran after the former had warned its citizens against travel to Istanbul at the risk of being targeted by Iranian agents. Cavusoglu said: “We must continue to work together because terrorism is our common enemy.” Abdollahian stated that his country is aware of Turkey’s security concerns, adding that Iran and Turkey’s security were indivisible. “We want nothing but good for the region and Turkey,” he stressed. He added that he agreed with Cavusoglu to set a roadmap to develop bilateral ties between Tehran and Ankara. Abdollahian later held talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. They stressed the importance of bolstering bilateral ties through “comprehensive and sustainable cooperation and boosting consultations over regional and international issues of interest.” During a visit to Turkey last week, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid thanked authorities for foiling attacks against Israeli citizens in Istanbul. Turkey announced the arrest of a cell, comprised of five Iranians and two Turks, that was planning to attack the former Israeli ambassador, his wife and other Israelis. Standing next to Lapid, Cavusoglu said Turkey “cannot permit these kinds of incidents taking place in our country.” “We have delivered the necessary messages,” he said.

from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3728281/iran-says-seeking-long-term-cooperation-turkey

Algeria Announces Discovery of 'Important' Gas Deposit

Business

June 28th, 6:29am

Asharq Al-Awsat

In Amenas gas plant, 1,300 kilometers southeast of Algiers. (AFP file photo)

Algerian state energy firm Sonatrach announced Monday the discovery of an "important" deposit of gas condensate in the Hassi R'mel field in the Sahara desert. "Sonatrach announced today that it has identified a significant potential of hydrocarbons... at the level of the Hassi R'mel exploitation perimeter," a statement by the firm said. The deposit is estimated to have between 100 and 340 billion cubic meters of gas condensate, the statement said. "These volumes constitute one of the largest revaluations of reserves in the last 20 years," it added. Sonatrach plans to start operating the field in November, with production expected to reach 10 million cubic meters per day, AFP reported. Algeria has proven natural gas reserves of about 2.4 trillion cubic meters and supplies Europe with about 11 percent of its gas imports. Sonatrach said in February that it was prepared to increase supplies to Europe in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In May, the Algerian firm signed a memorandum of understanding with Italian giant Eni to boost gas exploration in the North African country.

from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3728271/algeria-announces-discovery-important-gas-deposit

Saudi Arabia Offers Condolences to Jordan over Gas Leak Victims

Gulf

June 28th, 6:21am

Asharq Al-Awsat

Jordanian security forces stand guard at the entrance of the emergency ward of a hospital late on June 27, 2022 in the Jordanian Red Sea resort of Aqaba following a toxic gas explosion in the port of the Red Sea resort earlier in the day. (AFP)

Saudi Arabia offered its condolences to Jordan on Tuesday over the victims of the gas leak in Aqaba. The Foreign Ministry expressed its sympathy and solidarity with the people of Jordan over the tragedy. It wished Jordan and its people continued security, peace and stability. At least 12 people died and 251 were injured in a chlorine gas leak from a storage tank at Aqaba port, officials and state media reported on Monday. The leak came after a tank filled with 25 tons of chlorine gas being exported to Djibouti fell while being transported, officials said.

from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3728266/saudi-arabia-offers-condolences-jordan-over-gas-leak-victims

What to Expect From NATO’s New Strategic Concept

Opinion

June 28th, 5:21am

James Stavridis

James Stavridis -

As the leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization nations prepare to meet this week in Madrid, I’m reminded of a call I received shortly after I became supreme allied commander at the alliance in 2009. It was from Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and with the directness for which he was famous, he said: “Jim, I want you to work with Madeleine Albright on our new NATO Strategic Concept. We are on a short timeline, and it must be done right. Get in touch with her and give her all your support.” I didn’t know Albright, who had been US secretary of state from 1997 to 2001, well. But, like pretty much everyone who did, I was in awe of her energy, good humor and drive. We contacted her team and set up an introductory call, and for the next year I was privileged to be part of her team creating a long-term strategy for the alliance, the first of the 21st century. The result, “Active Engagement, Modern Defense,” was adopted at NATO’s 2010 summit in Lisbon. I still treasure my small, blue, battered pocket copy, signed by Albright. I literally carried it with me throughout the four years I led the alliance’s military operations. As you would expect, the strategic concept reflected the times: It was full of references to counterterrorism, Afghanistan, the Balkans, counterpiracy and the other missions of the day. There are brief mentions of climate change and cyberwarfare, and China does not appear. Perhaps the most ironic part of the 2010 strategy are the words: “NATO poses no threat to Russia. On the contrary: we want to see a true strategic partnership between NATO and Russia.” While it is certainly true that NATO does not pose a threat to Russia, then or now, unfortunately, Russia under President Vladimir Putin certainly poses a threat to the alliance. Wars against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 are testament to his ambition to dominate the Western approaches to his nation. This week, for the first time since 2010, NATO will adopt and release a new strategic concept. Appropriately, this will occur again on the Iberian Peninsula, which juts into the broad ocean bridging the 30 members of the transatlantic alliance. What will the new strategic concept discuss, and what does its adoption portend for the venerable organization? Russia will clearly be at the top of everyone’s mind. After invasions of democratic nations and NATO partners Georgia and Ukraine (and a “soft invasion” of Moldova), the alliance has adopted an appropriately hard line toward the Russian Federation. Look for strong words that will codify significant defense increases, exemplified by Germany’s extraordinary near-doubling of its military budget for this year. Many more nations will hit the alliance goal of 2% of GDP devoted to defense. The strategic concept will also likely outline an increase in NATO’s standing response forces. (Until now, NATO has limited itself to rotating forces in and out of its Eastern European members.) There will also likely be an underscoring of NATO’s commitment to the Arctic. As global warming opens vast resources and shipping routes, the geopolitical tension between Russia on one side of the “Arctic Porch” and NATO on the other (the US, Canada, Denmark, Iceland and Norway) will increase. Surveillance, training and joint exercises will likewise be stepped up. And the likely addition of two Nordic nations, Finland and Sweden, adds to the importance of the “high north” and to the alliance’s strength in its waters. Cyberwarfare will feature far more prominently than in the 2010 document. The number of devices connected to the “internet of things” has increased from around 7 billion in 2010 to well above 50 billion today. This represents both convenience (I can open my garage door from 2,000 miles away!) but also a vast threat area that can be penetrated by enemy nations and non-state actors. Recent experience blunting Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine will help inform NATO’s new approach. Unlike in 2010, this long-term plan will describe China as a strategic competitor. NATO is not looking for conflict with Beijing, but must be capable of addressing concerns in cyberspace, human rights and territorial claims in the South China Sea — including consideration of NATO undertaking freedom of navigation patrols. The updated document will also likely emphasize cooperation globally with non-NATO democracies including Australia, Japan and South Korea. Finally, the concept will emphasize that applications for expansion will be welcome, subject to the requirements for entry laid out in the NATO treaty. Finland and Sweden are at the front of the line, but Bosnia-Herzegovina and Georgia are still hoping for a path to membership, and so of course is Ukraine. All these initiatives are sensible and necessary. It is worth remembering, however, how wrong our 2010 document was in the case of Russia. Dwight D. Eisenhower, NATO’s first supreme allied commander, supposedly said that “the plan is nothing, but planning is everything.” He meant, correctly, that the alliance will get some things wrong and overlook others. We may be headed toward a more constructive relationship with China than expected. Or there may be unexpected but significant out-of-area challenges — perhaps in sub-Saharan Africa, stemming from piracy or mass migration headed toward Europe. Who, back in 2000, would have predicted a NATO mission in Afghanistan with 150,000 troops? But the process of thinking through the potential challenges, crafting a document that lays out a broad course of action, and working together to implement it, will inherently make the alliance more prepared for whatever the next decade brings. This 2022 strategic concept will emphasize the core strengths of NATO — a shared belief in democracy, liberty, rule of law and the other values we cherish. I just wish Madeleine Albright was here to see it. Bloomberg

from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3728166/james-stavridis/what-expect-nato%E2%80%99s-new-strategic-concept

George Soros, Mahathir and the Legacy of 1997

Opinion

June 28th, 5:11am

Daniel Moss

Daniel Moss -

The implosion that became known as the Asian financial crisis had several chapters. Over the better part of two years in the late 1990s, the economies of Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea crumbled, while Malaysia suffered its deepest recession and rocked the world with capital controls. To appreciate the brew of forces driving this market collapse, one moment in Hong Kong during the early days of the rout is instructive. At the combined annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in September 1997, a conflict raged over who was to blame for the nascent financial calamity, and what kind of economic model would emerge after it. The main protagonists were Mahathir Mohamad, at the zenith of his power as prime minister of Malaysia, and George Soros, the billionaire who made bold bets against the currencies of Thailand and Malaysia in the run-up to the crisis. A few years earlier, Soros had defeated the Bank of England’s efforts to prop up the pound. Mahathir, for his part, had presided over high growth rates for much of his 16 years in office that were now at risk of being undone. With Thailand already subject to the strictures of an IMF-led bailout and Indonesia hurtling down the path toward one, Mahathir feared Malaysia could be next. Soros was portrayed by Mahathir and other nationalists as representing global capital, in all its fickleness — and drew scrutiny (and sometimes praise) for his ability to spot countries and assets that were starting to go awry. Mahathir became a proxy for an old state-directed way of doing business that often coupled turbocharged economic growth with political centralization. Eager to avoid blame for the coming hardship, Mahathir pointed his finger at outside forces seeking to undo Malaysia’s progress. In Soros, who was sharply critical of him, the Malaysian leader found his foil. IMF meetings are typically buttoned-up affairs, but over a weekend of drama, the two men had at it. Mahathir, who had called Soros “a moron,” accused financial titans of seeking to reverse decades of economic development that propelled tens of millions into the middle class. Soros branded Mahathir “a menace” to his country. Despite their exchange at times resembling schoolyard taunts, the underlying questions were profound. Would Asia resume torrid rates of growth that had lifted hundreds of millions from poverty in the space of a generation? Could political frameworks built up over decades around strongman leaders survive the wrenching downturn? While Asian leaders embraced market liberalization in the late 1980s and early 1990s as a way to attract foreign direct investment and portfolio capital, the loss of control that came with it made them leery. Prior to the crisis, and into its initial phases, they sought to delay that reckoning. The Asian financial crisis began unfolding 25 years ago, on July 2, when Thailand abandoned efforts to shore up its currency, the baht. The capitulation prompted sharp declines in Asian foreign exchange markets, setting Bangkok, Jakarta and Seoul on a path to bailouts from the IMF. It also lit the fuse on political upheavals that were a long time in the making. In Indonesia, the tumult, alongside the harsh conditions sought by the IMF in a series of emergency loans that began in October 1997, hastened the end of the Suharto era, a three-decade run of impressive growth — and repression. As long as the economic expansion rolled on, much could be swept under the carpet. It ended in May 1998 amid communal violence and the deaths of student demonstrators at the hands of police. Months later, a Korean opposition candidate won the presidency for the first time. Mahathir held on, but left a legacy of fragmentation in the Malay establishment that, ultimately, culminated in the ruling party’s defeat in 2018. The region’s democratic transition has since had setbacks, though all three countries are far more open than before the bust. This was also no local affair. The crisis migrated from Asia to Russia and then Latin America. Capital fled shaky emerging markets and piled into dollars. America was in the midst of a boom and the US propounded a “strong dollar” policy. The architects of this happy state of affairs, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, were at the IMF and World Bank gatherings in Hong Kong, but avoided theatrics, as did a young assistant secretary at Treasury by the name of Tim Geithner. US prosperity was not at risk from market tumult — yet. Geithner became a critical player in a financial drama that beset the US from 2007 to 2009, first as New York Fed president and then as Treasury secretary. Viewed from one perspective, the subprime bust was a sequel to the emerging market crackups a decade earlier. There was the same complacency and certitude about things that would not happen: The US housing market would never implode and the government would never be forced to bail out systemically important firms, or so the thinking went. The waves of upheaval weren’t dissimilar from the ones that rocked Asia a decade earlier. A year after Mahathir’s provocative performance in Hong Kong, which included an exhortation that currency trading ought to be banned outright, the premier pegged the ringgit to the buck and imposed capital controls. He also vanquished Anwar Ibrahim, then finance minister, who was considered sympathetic to the IMF and Wall Street. Mahathir also blamed Jews, including Soros, for the economic slump, remarks aimed at bolstering support in the Malay-Muslim heartlands. It will always be a stain on his career. (Ironically, Soros was at one point supporting the ringgit, Malaysia’s currency.) So was this just a standard emerging market drama spiced by the odd revolution and verbal grenades from cantankerous leaders? On a global scale, it looks like the first great bust of the post-Cold War era. For Asia, it marked a dividing line: Growth recovered, but never really returned to the pre-1997 levels on a sustained basis. While power can change hands, monetary regimes are more orthodox. When long-held assumptions collapse, it’s rarely limited to matters of money. Bloomberg

from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3728161/daniel-moss/george-soros-mahathir-and-legacy-1997

Iran, US to Hold Indirect Talks in Doha on Tuesday

Iran

June 28th, 4:27am

Asharq Al-Awsat

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian meets with High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, in Tehran, Iran June 25, 2022. (West Asia News Agency via Reuters)

Indirect talks between Iran and the United States will start on Tuesday in Qatar's capital, the Iranian foreign ministry said on Monday, amid a push by the European Union to break a months-long impasse in negotiations to secure a 2015 nuclear pact. Confirming the arch foes will meet in Doha this week, the US State Department said Iran needed to decide to drop additional demands that go beyond the nuclear pact. "Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani will travel to Doha on Tuesday for the nuclear talks," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Naser Kanani told state news agency IRNA. Earlier, a source briefed on the visit said that US Special Envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, was expected to arrive in Doha on Monday and meet the Qatari foreign minister. An Iranian official also told Reuters that Iran's Bagheri Kani, would be in Doha for the talks on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Qatari government has yet to comment. The pact appeared close to being secured in March when the EU invited foreign ministers representing the accord's parties to Vienna to finalize an agreement after 11 months of indirect talks between Tehran and President Joe Biden's administration. But the talks have since been suspended, chiefly over Tehran's insistence that Washington remove the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its elite security force, from the US Foreign Terrorist Organization list. Last week, one Iranian and one European official told Reuters that Iran had dropped its demand for the removal of the IRGC's FTO sanctions, but still two issues, including one on sanctions, remained to be resolved. "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said on Monday. The 2015 nuclear pact imposed curbs on Iran's nuclear activities in return for the lifting of international sanctions. Then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the deal in 2018, reimposing tough economic sanctions on Tehran. Iran's ruling clerics responded by breaching the pact's nuclear restrictions.

from Asharq AL-awsat https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3728136/iran-us-hold-indirect-talks-doha-tuesday