Lebanon: Tight Security Measures in the Surroundings of Jumblatt’s Residence following Threats

Beirut- The security team of head of Lebanon’s Democratic Gathering deputy Walid Jumblatt had imposed tight security measures around his residence in the capital Beirut after leaked news said ISIS placed his name on its new list of assassinations.

A ministerial source close to leader of the Progressive Socialist Party told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The threats against Jubmlatt are serious and there are assertions that he entered again the circle of danger,” adding that actions should be taken to face these threats.

Lately, tight security measures were imposed around the residence of Jumbaltt in Clemenceau, Beirut.

However, another source close to the Druze leader said: “Jumblatt does not enjoy those security measures as he is mostly seen circulating in the capital, driving his own car.”

Lately, a pro-Iranian newspaper had published a report saying ISIS was planning to assassinate Walid Jumblatt, driving fears among the Druze community in Lebanon.

Jumblatt responded last month to the ISIS threats, saying “Whatever the threat may be, be it from local or external parties, we depend on God and fate at this age.”

Member of the Democratic Gathering parliamentary bloc, deputy Marwan Hamadeh told Asharq Al-Awsat that the assassination threats aim at suppressing all consensual attempts to reach an exit to the Lebanese crisis, by merging the basket of suggestions presented by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri with the election of a new President.

Hamadeh accused the Syrian regime and his allies for standing behind the threats against Jumblatt. He said after the Syrian regime had lately lost several positions during the Aleppo battles, Damascus seeks to keep the Lebanese paper in its hands through a wave of new assassinations, and by creating chaos and paralyzing the country’s institutions.

Lebanon: Tight Security Measures in the Surroundings of Jumblatt’s Residence following Threats

Ould Cheikh with New Efforts to Solve the Yemeni Crisis

Aden- U.N. Special Envoy to Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed kicked off a new regional tour on Saturday to revive the frozen Yemeni peace talks.

Informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the U.N. envoy should be expecting hard negotiations with the rebel delegation, currently present in Oman, particularly when tackling two subjects: the restart of peace talks and an agreement on a new truce to stop the fighting.

The already frozen negotiations to end 18 months of fighting in Yemen collapsed last month in Kuwait and Houthi militias there resumed shelling attacks into Saudi Arabia.

Fighting in Yemen started in 2004 when President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi was sent into exile, after former president Ali Abdullah Saleh and his Houthi supporters seized the capital city of Sana’a. Another source close to the rebel delegation asserted to Asharq Al-Awsat that the delegation has been rejecting a meeting with Ould Cheikh since he arrived to Oman, where the rebel delegation is staying after it left Kuwait last month.

The delegation is stuck in Muscat after the international collation had closed the Sana’a international airport, expect for flights carrying humanitarian aids.

The source said the delegation would sit with Ould Cheikh on two main conditions: their return to Sana’a to consult with Houthi leaders, and the lift of airspace restrictions imposed on the capital.

The source quoted a member of the rebel delegation as saying: “We want to speak with our leadership and he (Ould Cheikh) won’t allow us.”

But, observers say that Houthi rebels would end up meeting with the U.N. envoy.

Yemeni political activist Baleegh Al-Mekhlafi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the U.S. was determined to hold a new round of Yemeni talks, expected in Oslo and that under military pressure, Houthis and Saleh will end up, as usual, meeting with the U.N. envoy to revive the peace process.

Commenting on the situation of the Yemeni rebels, Najeeb Ghallab, head of Aljazeera Alarabiyah Center for Studies and Research forum told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group is currently facing two choices after peace talks failed in Kuwait last month: Either they continue the war or they accept the U.N. vision to end the crisis. “The more they fail to accept the U.N. conditions, they more they lose,” Gholab said.

Ould Cheikh’s new regional tour comes as fighting escalates between warring parties. Yemen’s National Army and the Popular Resistance forces succeeded on Saturday to move the battle to areas extremely close to the capital after they had controlled the majority of mountains and hills in the Nihm district.

Ould Cheikh with New Efforts to Solve the Yemeni Crisis

Coalition Aircraft Drop Leaflets on Residents of Shabwah Asking Them to Report Terrorists

Local informed sources and security sources in the Shabwah Governorate, east of Aden, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Arab coalition aircraft are flying over the city of Ataq, the capital of the governorate, and are dropping leaflets on the city’s residents, asking them to report any terrorist fighters in the city.

The leaflet warns residents, especially those of Ataq, against terrorist fighters. “Al-Qaeda in Yemen will deceive you”, “They are fleeing from one area to another like insects”, “They will cause your family to suffer” and “Report on Al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen!” are examples of statements written on the leaflets. A WhatsApp number and an e-mail address through which the coalition could be contacted were printed on the leaflets and people were assured that “All communication will be highly confidential”.

The leaflets are being dropped at a time when elite forces in Shabwah and the Southern Resistance are preparing for a military campaign to cleanse the governorate of Shabwah of terrorist groups with direct support from coalition forces in Aden and Hadhramaut.

Three Al-Qaeda fighters were killed in an American drone strike on the capital of the governorate, Ataq, on Tuesday. Security and military sources confirmed that forces are being trained in Aden, and are about to graduate under the supervision of coalition forces in Yemen after they complete the training process and qualify.

Coalition Aircraft Drop Leaflets on Residents of Shabwah Asking Them to Report Terrorists

Opinion: China is Our Future

China and India are countries that may play a crucial role in the near future of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states in general. One key factor can change the equation because these two countries represent the two largest growing markets in the world at a time when other major markets are saturated or shrinking in terms of oil imports. Riyadh is turning towards the two countries, and this can be seen from the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s two successive visits to China, which are part of his efforts to cope with changes and keep up with the development of economic resources.

Many other industrial and oil producing states are racing to obtain a share of the Indian and Chinese markets. However, what distinguishes Saudi Arabia is that it is the cheapest, most equipped and largest oil reservoir in the world that is not subject to obstacles or sanctions, as is the case with Iran, for example.

Will Saudi Arabia be able to adopt a strategy of shifting towards the east after decades of relations with the west? Fortunately, at this stage there are no prohibitions like there were during the Cold War when countries used to take risks when they tried to change their political approach, that is if they were able to do so at all. Turning towards Chinese and Indian markets is not purely a political project as relations with the west will remain strong as western countries are the most influential in the region. The distinctive relationship with China and India will boost Saudi Arabia’s influence and regional and international strategic importance, in the West in particular.

Investing in a large economic project with the Chinese and Indians is not an easy task as it opens up a whole new world. It requires a positive drive with great governmental abilities. Companies, banks, funds, chambers of commerce, bilateral partnerships, businessmen, research and university centres and specialist government institutions will all play a major role in this drive.

Due to the fact that China is almost a single institution, it is easier to cooperate with it. Its government agencies and official institutions are the actual bodies managing foreign relations and transactions. As for India, its private sector mainly manages its affairs.

In our long established relations with major consumer markets like Britain and the United States, oil sales have been the basis for trade exchange. This still remains the primary factor in our dealings with China and India. However, today we are aiming for wide-ranging relations.

China and India are the only two countries that can compensate for shortages in western markets such as the decline in oil sales to the US market. It also offers great opportunity for the aspirations of the government to increase the country’s economic trade that requires more creative thinking and a greater dependence on the private sector to play a role that is characterised by flexibility, speed and adaptation.

China and India are similar in the sense that they are cautious of mixing politics and trade, although China is one of the main exporters of arms in the world and Saudi Arabia has had a successful experience with it since the 1990s. The special relationship that the two countries have with major powers will continue as long as they refrain from getting involved in regional wars and alliances.

Opinion: China is Our Future

Cypriot Foreign Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: Riyadh is the Key to the Region

The Cypriot Minister of Foreign Affairs Ioannis Kasoulidis spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat for more than an hour and a half about the good relations of his country with the Arab region. He also touched on his meeting with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi last month during a visit to Cairo in the presence of the Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry as well as the Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit. There are four Gulf embassies in the capital of his country; they belong to Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait and Oman. He expressed hopes that the Saudi flag would fly over his territory and a Saudi embassy in Nicosia would be opened soon. There is also a Cypriot embassy in Riyadh, and he stressed that Saudi Arabia is the key to the Arab region. His interview with Asharq Al-Awsat follows:

• How was your visit to Egypt last month?

It was a very fruitful meeting. I was received by President El-Sisi and the prime minister and we had very friendly, warm talks with the Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry. I also visited the Arab League and Secretary-General Ahmed Abou Gheit. Let me say first of all that my visit to Egypt came in order to consolidate bilateral relations and to attend the meetings that were held in anticipation of the summit that is going to take place in October in Cairo between the Greek PM, the President of Cyprus and the President of Egypt in the context of the trilateral strategic coordination that is taking place between these three countries, and it is a continuation of what had been decided in Athens last year.

One of the main aims of this upcoming summit is considered part of the cooperation in the field of security, and the cooperation that exists in matters of security between the three countries in fighting terrorism and other asymmetrical threats. We decided in Athens that there should also be tangible results and we agreed on ways of combating terrorism, ISIS in particular, and that we will assist in the planting of olive trees in the Sinai Peninsula and in the creation of fish farms in certain areas designated by Egypt, particularly in Port Said. So I wanted to make sure that everything is going as had been decided so that these results will be able to be announced. There are other areas of cooperation between these three countries, including the exchange of ministerial meetings that have taken place. This week we are going to have the Egyptian Minister of Petroleum in Cyprus.

Egypt is one of our neighbours, a very significant country, pivotal for security in the region, and we value very much our strategic relationship with Cairo which aims at contributing to the stability and security in our region, particularly the eastern Mediterranean and beyond. Traditionally, Egypt and Cyprus have been very close from the time of Makarios and Nasser, this working together has been reinvigorated in the last few years. I am proud to say that I am the first EU minister that has visited Cairo on the 3rd of September 2013, just two months after the second revolution of the Egyptian people.

The coming conference in Cairo will be the implementation of projects decided in Athens.

Another purpose of my visit to Cairo was to discuss, with the foreign ministry but also El-Sisi, matters concerning our region regarding issues like Libya, Yemen, Syria, Middle East peace problems and so on.

• How did you hear about the military coup attempt in Turkey?

We were informed of a coup taking place from the media. Of course, we were worried. We were worried first of all because we don’t want a military junta coming back to Turkey, this is something that is unacceptable and retrograde for the period we are going through. We were relieved that the coup failed and we were relieved that the democratically elected government prevailed. So this was our first reaction. We are worried when there is an army of 43,000 troops in Cyprus and when these troops, for a few hours, are without orders and nobody knows who was where and who was supporting who. So, of course, we were worried.

• Did you go on high alert given that there are more than 40,000 Turkish troops stationed in northern Cyprus?

We didn’t go on high alert. We didn’t want to make movements that would provoke the other side. We were very restrained. Yes, our national guard took some measures but they were the appropriate measures that didn’t cause any concern to the Turkish Cypriot side.

• Did you speak with Turkish officials during or after the coup?

During the coup we spoke unofficially with the Turkish Cypriot leadership. We exchanged news with them and informed them that the situation did not affect us.

• Do you agree that the July 15 coup attempt in Turkey could actually be a further push for a settlement of the Cyprus problem as a way for the country to restore relations with the EU and the US?

The negotiations in Cyprus between the leaders of the two communities have been going on with a steady form of progress all the time. Ideas always need to mature before they converge. The longer the talks last, the more risks that an extraneous event can take place, such as the fallout of the failed coup. But I must say that after the coup attempt there were meetings between President Anastasiades and Mr. Akinci that show that nothing has affected the talks themselves.

The express wish of both leaders is to finish within 2016. Now let’s say that 95 or 98 per cent has been agreed and there remains something to go over to 2017, there is a problem if there is a stalemate and we don’t advance. We have been advancing so far.

• Following the coup attempt, Cypriot officials have been reiterating that it is not possible for Turkey to a have a role in security and guarantees of a settlement agreement. What is your view of that?

We have been saying this even before the coup attempt. We are saying that we seek a security system, following the agreement, that will make Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots feel equally secure. An arrangement that results in a symmetrical sense of security between the two communities. We must find a way that we both feel equally secure.

• President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci last week held their first discussions on territory, security and guarantees. The last time the issues were discussed at the negotiating table was in 2004. After a summer break, the leaders are expected to meet eight more times over the coming weeks, dedicating part of their discussions to these issues. Can we expect an agreement anytime soon?

I think if we have the political will, we can reach an understanding on the territorial and security issues, which are the two issues that have not yet been discussed apart from a first examination of the matter. We can then see the end of the road more clearly. This is going to take place in the days and weeks to come. On the 14th of September, after seven meetings, the leaders will decide about the next steps. You begin with preliminary points of view from both sides and then you try to narrow the gaps and reach a convergence. It needs a little bit of time.

• How is Cyprus handling the migrant crisis that is facing the EU and which has hit Greece the hardest in recent weeks?

Cyprus is the closest EU state to Syria. Despite that, because we are an island, we were spared. We were not affected that much by the migrant crisis. We get a boat every now and again. But because we are an island, we are not very attractive to the migrants. The reason is that the migrants want to go to affluent countries of the EU; Germany, Sweden, etc. They don’t want to come to Cyprus because if they come here that means they will be stuck here. They are only entitled to political asylum and will have to remain in Cyprus. They cannot go far. The EU has decided a fair distribution of migrants to all members of state. For Cyprus, according to the formula, we are supposed to receive 500 people. We were asked twice to go and collect refugees belonging to those in mainland Europe, only six accepted to come. We were asked to go and get 129 migrants from Greece. As for the others, they didn’t want to come.

• Italian oil and gas giant Eni has said it will start exploratory drilling off the south of Cyprus next year, following a meeting between the company’s boss and the Cypriot President. How will this affect Cyprus?

You know very well that after the discovery in the Egyptian exclusive economic zone (EEZ), a new geological model was used by Eni for this discovery, which proved that there should be many more reserves of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean, whether in the Egyptian EEZ, the Cypriot EEZ or the Israeli EEZ, leaving alone Lebanon which also has possible reserves. So a lot of companies have shown interest in drilling, including Eni for the three areas which have been assigned to them. A new competition for new blocks took place in Cyprus with very good results, interests of companies like Exxon Mobile, and a company associated with Qatar Petroleum, Total. So many companies have shown interest. Next year there will be an announcement of new concessions and an assignment of locations for companies. This is extremely important. Not just for the economic prospects that will come, but the future prosperity on this island will serve both communities in Cyprus and will be an additional factor on why we should be united, not divided.

From March 2017 onwards, it’s up to the companies to decide. There is the option of pipelines which can go to Turkey if there is a solution to the problem of Cyprus. Then there is this project related to Greece. There is the LNG way to export through tankers, if you have an LNG power station. There are two in Egypt, waiting for us.

• How does Egypt being a member of the UN Security Council for 2016-17 effect hopes over the Cyprus negotiations?

It’s a great help with our cases in front of the Security Council twice a year. We get a tremendous help both at the UNSC but also at the OIC.

• You also met with Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit. How are Cypriot relations with the Arab League?

Cyprus is a member of the EU and values very much the strategic dialogue between Europe and the Arab world. For us, the Arab world is the closest group of countries and the obvious essential partner in working together. Visiting the Secretary-General of the Arab League was important to reiterate our friendship, our support of areas of cooperation between the EU and the Arab League, but also to explain to him the strategic opening of Cyprus, the strategic foreign policy of Cyprus, in reaching all the Arab countries.

• There is a new UAE embassy in Cyprus. Is this the start of a new era in relations with the GCC?

As you know we have resident embassies in Cyprus from Kuwait and Oman, and now the UAE. Saudi Arabia sent letters of credence from Athens last year.

We have an embassy in Riyadh, in Kuwait, in the UAE and Oman. And of course you know King Abdullah II is visiting Cyprus on the 6th. There is a full range of diplomatic activity and improvement of relations with all the GCC and Arab countries of the region. There are twelve Arab embassies in Cyprus including Syria and Libya.

• When will there be a Saudi embassy in Cyprus?

I look forward to having the Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Cyprus soon and the Saudi flag flying in the skies of our country.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs’ Curriculum Vitae:

Ioannis Kasoulides was born on the 10th of August 1948, in Nicosia.

He studied Medicine at the University of Lyon in France and specialised in Geriatrics in London. He participated in the May ‘68 student demonstrations and founded and chaired the Federation of Cypriot Students’ Union in France.

Ioannis Kasoulides served the centre-right wing party Democratic Rally from various posts, including the post of the President of the Youth Organization of the Party. In 1991 he was elected as Member of the House of Representatives.

When Glafkos Clerides won the Presidential Election in March 1993 he was appointed Government Spokesman, a position in which he served until April 1997 when he was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs until the end of term of Clerides’ administration in February 2003.

During his term as Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ioannis Kasoulides led the diplomatic effort that marked the beginning and the completion of the accession negotiations of Cyprus to the European Union.

In June 2004 Ioannis Kasoulides was elected for the first time as Member of the European Parliament achieving an outstanding vote record. He was appointed full member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and under this capacity he served in various positions, including the Presidency of the ad hoc Committee for Human Rights in Western Sahara. He also served as member of the Bureau of the European People’s Party (EPP).

Mr Kasoulides ran for President in the February 2008 elections in Cyprus. He won the first round, entering the run-off election against the eventual winner, Mr Demetris Christofias. Mr Kasoulides received just under 47% of the vote, having the support of the Democratic Rally only.

In June 2009 Ioannis Kasoulides was re-elected as Member of the European Parliament, breaking his previous outstanding record for the number of votes. He was elected Vice President of the EPP group of the European Parliament, and was appointed Head of the Foreign Affairs working group. He was re-elected in the same position in 2012.

Ioannis Kasoulides is fluent in English, French and German. He is the author of the book “Cyprus – EU: The accession as I witnessed it”.

He is married to the doctor, Anaesthesiologist Mrs Emy Kasoulidou and they have a daughter, Joanna.

Mr Kasoulides assumed office as Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Cyprus on 1st March 2013.

The four resident embassies in Cyprus: UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar

Cypriot Foreign Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: Riyadh is the Key to the Region

Tokyo Governor: People are the Backbone of Saudi Vision 2030

Tokyo-Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike described the Saudi Vision 2030 as ambitious, saying it considers the people the most important wealth in the country, an approach that is highly respected given that the oil wealth was for a long time considered the foundation of development.

Koike told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that this vision answers some difficult questions such as: how do we achieve sustainable development?

Koike, the first woman to occupy this position, said that Saudi-Japanese relations are solid and based on political accord and continuous communication on the level of leaders, not to mention the friendship between the Saudi royal family and the Japanese empire.

Koike also told Asharq Al-Awsat, “the variety of Saudi cities attracted my attention: Dammam has an industrial pattern and Makkah enjoys spirituality.”

She added that she is looking forward to cooperate with Riyadh for the purpose of establishing a bridge between the two capitals just like Cairo and Tokyo.

Tokyo governor talked about her vision to overcome hurdles preventing the development of Japanese-Arab economic relations and insisted that Japanese people should let go of their tendency to reach perfection because the Japanese product might become overqualified hence unaffordable for the second party.

The Governor said that she is “willing to create an economic identity for Tokyo and that she does not reject using new policies”; she also hailed the kingdom’s awareness that oil wealth will be over one day and that finding alternative energy sources is a must.

Koike concluded in her remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat that she feels a spiritual connection with the Arab world and that her role to focus on common points between the Japanese and Arab people will not stop.

Tokyo Governor: People are the Backbone of Saudi Vision 2030

Donald Trump’s Bigotry

According to recent polls, the image of Donald Trump as a bigot has begun to crystallize, and for good reason: Because it’s true!

A Quinnipiac poll released last week found that 59 percent of likely voters, and 29 percent of likely Republican voters in particular, think that the way Trump talks appeals to bigotry. Republicans were the only anomaly. A majority or plurality of every other demographic measured — Democrats, independents, men, women, white people with and without college degrees, every age group, whites and nonwhites alike — agreed that Trump’s words appeal to bigotry.

But there is one demographic that must be particularly concerning to Trump: college-educated whites.

I know that Trump has boasted that he loves the poorly educated, but there appears to be little love lost between him and those white people with degrees. In fact, as the blog FiveThirtyEight predicted in July, “Trump may become the first Republican in 60 years to lose white college graduates.”

This may in part be due to his particularly abysmal performance among college-educated white women.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll this month found: “Trump enjoys a roughly 40-point lead among white men without college degrees but only a high single-digit lead among college-educated white men. Among white women without college degrees, he leads by low double-digits but trails by nearly 20 points among college-educated white women.”

Not only are these college-educated white women likely to recoil from a man they view as biased toward others, they also probably realize their own place as a historically disadvantaged group and know how very harmful bias can be.

This is surely earth-shattering news for a struggling campaign, so Trump, in a fit of desperation, is throwing anything and everything against the wall to see if it sticks, to shake the bigotry label off of him and make it stick to Hillary Clinton.

He has engaged in fake outreach to African-American voters, feeding his nearly all-white crowds a healthy diet of the most pernicious stereotypes about the horror and unremitting bleakness of black life. He has waffled and grown more ambiguous on his hard line concerning immigrants who are in the country illegally.

His repeated refrain, supposedly to the black and Hispanic voters, is: “What the hell do you have to lose? Give me a chance.” But in fact, he’s talking past blacks and Hispanics, two groups he has previously shown little interest in. He is instead speaking directly to the educated white voters who recoil at the thought of supporting a bigot. Blacks and Hispanics are mere pawns in this appeal.

Furthermore, he wants to move the withering light of examination away from himself, his history, his disturbing coziness with white nationalists, and focus that light on the history of racial and ethnic alliances in the opposite political party.

This is all a rather clever distraction, but it is a distraction nonetheless.

The fact remains that there is a disturbing racial undertone to the Trump campaign that goes far beyond the tired narrative of economic anxiety and distress among white people in the flyover states who feel ignored by conventional politicians.

That may be one component, but so is this: One of the most effective narratives of Trump’s campaign has been driven by racial isolationism, and racial isolationists appear to be the very ones drawn to that message. This is not partisan theory, but empirical fact.

The draft of a major working paper published this month by the Gallup senior economist Jonathan Rothwell found: “His supporters are less educated and more likely to work in blue-collar occupations, but they earn relative high household incomes, and living in areas more exposed to trade or immigration does not increase Trump support. There is stronger evidence that racial isolation and less strictly economic measures of social status, namely health and intergenerational mobility, are robustly predictive of more favorable views toward Trump, and these factors predict support for him but not other Republican presidential candidates.”

Specifically on this racial isolation point, Rothwell put it this way: “This analysis provides clear evidence that those who view Trump favorably are disproportionately living in racially and culturally isolated ZIP codes and commuting zones. Excluding other factors, constant support for Trump is highly elevated in areas with few college graduates, far from the Mexican border, and in neighborhoods that stand out within the commuting zone for being white, segregated enclaves, with little exposure to blacks, Asians, and Hispanics.”

He continued: “This is consistent with contact theory, which has already received considerable empirical support in the literature in a variety of analogous contexts. Limited interactions with racial and ethnic minorities, immigrants, and college graduates may contribute to prejudicial stereotypes, political and cultural misunderstandings, and a general fear of rejection and not-belonging.”

Racial isolation is the common thread here. It is what would allow his supporters to so uncritically accept the corrosive mythologies he creates about minorities. But it is this same racial isolation that will make minorities and college-educated white voters avoid Trump like the plague.

The New York Times

Donald Trump’s Bigotry